Premier League · resolved market
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccccf80a1215c71f7c6d87abdc4135010d2f13a82bd9d4a33de565a4c3312aa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Under | 79c | 8,928$7,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,874.9 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 21c | 5,521$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.47 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 19c | 4,535$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.41 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…a55abacked Over | 21c | 2,717$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.61 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab1…b4ecbacked Under | 75c | 2,627$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 79c | 1,400$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 557 | 51.5%287 W · 270 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 22c | 1,335$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.47 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 19c | 997.42$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.1 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Over | 3c | 753.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 137 | 21.2%29 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 550.84$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…91a6backed Under | 80c | 491.54$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 21c | 453.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 20c | 415.41$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…43fdbacked Under | 80c | 383.2$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…0104backed Under | 80c | 336.41$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 20c | 316.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 335 | 51.3%172 W · 163 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 80c | 305.35$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 77c | 256.98$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 18c | 253.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…8ce5backed Under | 80c | 197.6$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfafd…8837backed Under | 80c | 185.25$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 71c | 176.87$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 23c | 170$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +21.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Under | 79c | 165.89$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 22c | 162.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Under | 79c | 153.73$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…04a7backed Under | 77c | 153.68$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Under | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 31c | 128.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Over | 26c | 127.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd4…8bf9backed Under | 69c | 121.94$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 79c | 119.64$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 79c | 117.18$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 16c | 117.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Under | 77c | 115.18$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc165…61a9backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…2b89backed Under | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…09edbacked Under | 75c | 91.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 20c | 87.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 592 | 47.6%282 W · 310 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…84c5backed Under | 79c | 62.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 80c | 61.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Over | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Under | 80c | 59.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 52.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…d0bfbacked Under | 80c | 49.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1897backed Under | 80c | 48.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10f…3bb5backed Under | 79c | 43.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…ff8bbacked Under | 80c | 40.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 76c | 37.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 72c | 36.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 77c | 33.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…779fbacked Under | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 75c | 29.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 288 | 59.7%172 W · 116 L | +19.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Under | 74c | 29.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…4927backed Under | 80c | 28.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 77c | 24.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 79c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 73 | 69.9%51 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 79c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 61 | 75.4%46 W · 15 L | +12.0wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +35%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…45fbbacked Under | 75c | 18.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…b24abacked Under | 74c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 80c | 17.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Under | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Brentford FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Brentford FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Brentford FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.