TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Brentford FCof Manchester United FC, Brentford FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,656
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,660

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,656 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Manchester United FC65c5,583$3,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,624.5513353.4%71 W · 62 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Brentford FC71c4,625$3,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.126,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Brentford FC63c4,231$2,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,562.694,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e85…9b0bbacked Brentford FC74c3,713$2,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.951631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Manchester United FC29c3,402$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.5512139.7%48 W · 73 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6638…0b09backed Manchester United FC46c3,401$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.681637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Brentford FC72c3,372$2,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.1420545.4%93 W · 112 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3b5a…87efbacked Manchester United FC28c3,072$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.166229%18 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Brentford FC73c2,492$1,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.8310765.4%70 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42a6…cb72backed Manchester United FC28c2,113$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.72828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Manchester United FC27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54019729.4%58 W · 139 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e75…225bbacked Manchester United FC28c1,709$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Manchester United FC26c1,700$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4421225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc947…3462backed Manchester United FC28c1,435$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.863847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbb…f53cbacked Manchester United FC27c1,264$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.26540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc87…dd68backed Manchester United FC26c1,200$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.995632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd78d…81e0backed Brentford FC32c1,182$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.788537.6%32 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Brentford FC41c996.79$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.0216238.3%62 W · 100 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8519…f4e1backed Manchester United FC31c980.26$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.886634.8%23 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Brentford FC73c802.4$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6513748.2%66 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Brentford FC72c792.43$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.3941850.7%212 W · 206 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Manchester United FC32c789.45$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.6461143.7%267 W · 344 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Brentford FC61c627.6$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.511,66234.9%580 W · 1,082 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a93…c3eabacked Manchester United FC28c591.17$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.533132.3%10 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Brentford FC34c561.75$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.7613852.2%72 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Brentford FC69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15516858.3%98 W · 70 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Manchester United FC45c483.5$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.5818646.8%87 W · 99 L+11.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Manchester United FC32c480.85$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.641,93442.4%820 W · 1,114 L-43.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Brentford FC72c432.55$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.2359247.6%282 W · 310 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d4a…e7cabacked Brentford FC73c420.14$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.341952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Manchester United FC32c415.08$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.7810330.1%31 W · 72 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Manchester United FC67c392.13$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.611662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Brentford FC69c343.58$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5117959.8%107 W · 72 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb78d…835dbacked Manchester United FC27c343.52$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.752240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Brentford FC28c334.88$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.1110221.6%22 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5634…d81abacked Brentford FC61c320.28$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.964151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Brentford FC72c319.39$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.232,55047.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b4…d723backed Manchester United FC40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204425%11 W · 33 L-7.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-45.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x840d…3708backed Manchester United FC28c297.69$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.353327.3%9 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Brentford FC21c269.4$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.9251516.1%83 W · 432 L-49.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-38.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9006…385abacked Manchester United FC28c263.12$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.675459.3%32 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa936…3b90backed Brentford FC54c247.96$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.0610554.3%57 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Manchester United FC27c247.9$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9328824.7%71 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Manchester United FC26c242.96$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0355751.5%287 W · 270 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa492…adbebacked Manchester United FC40c241$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.49131.9%29 W · 62 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-34.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Manchester United FC39c216.93$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.682763%521 W · 306 L+113.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+41.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Brentford FC61c216.74$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.581,01233.2%336 W · 676 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked Manchester United FC27c177.07$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8110950.5%55 W · 54 L+11.5wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa84d…bebdbacked Manchester United FC28c170.86$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.842250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Brentford FC48c169.79$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8822644.2%100 W · 126 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Brentford FC73c167.25$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1612642.9%54 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Brentford FC44c166.23$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.761,40944.5%627 W · 782 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed Brentford FC61c156.26$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.94520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.41per pick61cpaid-67.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Manchester United FC27c147.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9218156.4%102 W · 79 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked Brentford FC74c147.66$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3918052.2%94 W · 86 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0abc…5a5cbacked Brentford FC27c134.58$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.24560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Brentford FC74c133.03$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.59757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa79d…ee14backed Brentford FC75c131.33$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.832661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Manchester United FC28c119.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2410338.8%40 W · 63 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x82b3…0c0ebacked Manchester United FC27c116.17$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a61…bbb2backed Manchester United FC27c106.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.692714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-49%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b01…e682backed Manchester United FC27c106.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.691816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-67.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1669…1363backed Manchester United FC46c105.34$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.382638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Manchester United FC28c102$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.569957.6%57 W · 42 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdd2…b879backed Manchester United FC27c99.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.771020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b57…84ebbacked Manchester United FC29c99.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.726432.8%21 W · 43 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccfa…6ee7backed Manchester United FC27c97.82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.892343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…7cb7backed Manchester United FC79c93.92$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.115662.5%35 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Manchester United FC27c88.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9110550.5%53 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe253…b9c7backed Manchester United FC27c88.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.93138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Brentford FC73c87.59$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6527752.3%145 W · 132 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5534…1036backed Manchester United FC48c84.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Manchester United FC50c81.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3740821.8%89 W · 319 L-53.7wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-49.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Brentford FC40c80.74$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4441343.3%179 W · 234 L-2.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Brentford FC73c77.51$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9321250.9%108 W · 104 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9803…0242backed Manchester United FC78c75.91$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b14…d7ecbacked Manchester United FC30c75.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…936dbacked Brentford FC75c74.56$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.641136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa93e…0a8cbacked Brentford FC74c73.4$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.087954.4%43 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked Manchester United FC40c72.3$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.928756.3%49 W · 38 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fa5…a15abacked Manchester United FC27c70.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.123363.6%21 W · 12 L+5.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+33.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb61…25e3backed Manchester United FC27c70.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.12425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaae…ec88backed Manchester United FC28c68.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.146240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba43…f1aabacked Brentford FC28c68.34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.21666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+64.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d5…11f0backed Brentford FC74c66.51$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.291850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc4b…c865backed Manchester United FC28c64.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.182045%9 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Manchester United FC52c59.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.723056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5513…2e2bbacked Manchester United FC28c59.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.561136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Brentford FC39c56.69$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.352962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…32f8backed Manchester United FC39c54.23$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Brentford FC74c53.44$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0711858.5%69 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Brentford FC72c52.66$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6911250.9%57 W · 55 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc47a…e2b6backed Manchester United FC28c51.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e6…e722backed Manchester United FC41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.53033.3%10 W · 20 L-5.4wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-37.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa64c…34f2backed Brentford FC74c49.22$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.85651.8%29 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Manchester United FC41c47.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.73336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc1f…ab66backed Manchester United FC27c46.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.43633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f96…e7f0backed Manchester United FC42c45.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.31040%4 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08f6…cd51backed Brentford FC57c44.28$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d57…8de8backed Manchester United FC28c42.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.