Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3268722d2f8f6d637f31702c7c39bcf359610b9aaec6864b069f8d49f44a1eb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 981.45$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.38 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 26c | 914.69$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.98 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 41c | 786.64$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.85 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 49c | 754.61$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.05 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ce…e90bbacked Yes | 49c | 700.55$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 69c | 683.35$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.36 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 65c | 552.64$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.33 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 32c | 512.89$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.6 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 56c | 511.7$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.86 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 51c | 466.01$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.31 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 40c | 396.09$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.33 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 23c | 394.12$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 371.34$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 354.33$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.11 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 70c | 327.54$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.52 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 40c | 292$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a2fdbacked Yes | 27c | 276.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 26c | 268.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.71 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 25c | 246.63$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.97 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 246.21$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.58 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 37c | 240.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.49 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 42c | 198.57$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.42 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 50c | 186.04$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 48c | 185.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d4…2eb3backed Yes | 56c | 181.9$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 26c | 179$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.92 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 48c | 170.17$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 68c | 156.48$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 65c | 155.71$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 31c | 154.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 35c | 147.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 28c | 140.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.39 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…a2fdbacked No | 72c | 137.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa3…63dbbacked Yes | 30c | 133.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 62c | 126.91$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 35c | 121.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.06 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 119.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 78c | 119.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 55c | 115.71$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 24c | 112.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 19c | 110.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.88 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 50c | 108.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 41c | 101.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…b5febacked Yes | 62c | 100.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…22e9backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed Yes | 44c | 99.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c6…fa39backed No | 10c | 97.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 26c | 89.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 38c | 87.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…9fa9backed Yes | 34c | 85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 33c | 72.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e7…1d7bbacked Yes | 48c | 71.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 25c | 71.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…a03abacked Yes | 39c | 71.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed No | 56c | 69.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 68.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 67.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdb…75dbbacked Yes | 31c | 64.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 18c | 62.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 49c | 60.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 58.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b534backed Yes | 37c | 56.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 30c | 55.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 45c | 54.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 38c | 52.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d72…9795backed No | 80c | 51.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 40c | 51.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…493abacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked No | 75c | 49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 71c | 48.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 31c | 46.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70cb…327fbacked No | 66c | 45.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…8bc2backed No | 46c | 43.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 38c | 42.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 64c | 41.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…0388backed Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…f3e0backed Yes | 72c | 39.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 47c | 36.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 33c | 32.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…cd82backed Yes | 54c | 30.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 40c | 27.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked No | 77c | 27.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…6521backed Yes | 73c | 27.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 45c | 26.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6366…8c41backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 63cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…091abacked No | 40c | 25.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5857…d08bbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.