Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8610eb92326abc5b3e0e84213a6338a6b75b131a0a7aa5035f61e13622f6247d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 1c | 5,027$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 7c | 735.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…e42dbacked Yes | 3c | 536.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…d983backed Yes | 26c | 518.82$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 12c | 516.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 509.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 20c | 450.84$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed No | 70c | 445.98$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.79 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeea…70b7backed Yes | 26c | 427.45$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 9c | 404.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 368.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 338.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 318.98$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…e06abacked Yes | 33c | 285.02$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 73c | 252.48$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…c440backed Yes | 31c | 234.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 229.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…5695backed Yes | 7c | 225$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 6c | 199.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a5…a2e6backed Yes | 30c | 197.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 7c | 194.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked No | 79c | 189.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…a2fdbacked Yes | 22c | 173.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c66…e4bfbacked Yes | 36c | 165.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…87c1backed Yes | 24c | 163.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a5…1bf1backed Yes | 37c | 160.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a3…ea60backed Yes | 32c | 157.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 7c | 155$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70cb…327fbacked Yes | 16c | 154.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 153.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 29c | 148$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 68c | 134.74$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…8c2ebacked Yes | 29c | 123.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 121.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…e956backed Yes | 28c | 121.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd1…184cbacked Yes | 23c | 120.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b7…b354backed Yes | 30c | 118.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…e789backed Yes | 39c | 114.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c81abacked Yes | 27c | 110.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 34c | 105.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52f…c51bbacked Yes | 30c | 103.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…c2a6backed Yes | 31c | 103.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 10c | 102.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 14c | 101.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 13c | 100.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4663…1273backed Yes | 34c | 96.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc656…a908backed Yes | 18c | 96.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 78c | 88.17$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…7eb0backed Yes | 33c | 87.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde80…c5b7backed Yes | 29c | 83.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 13c | 80.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a2fdbacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f4…2097backed Yes | 20c | 76.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…80e6backed Yes | 25c | 70.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931d…22b3backed Yes | 23c | 63.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2747…b25bbacked Yes | 31c | 62.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…416abacked Yes | 27c | 62.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 57.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd346…6469backed Yes | 29c | 53.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…faa0backed Yes | 28c | 53.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked No | 79c | 50.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016d…fe87backed Yes | 30c | 46.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…16c5backed Yes | 30c | 45.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 78c | 37.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…d8edbacked No | 79c | 31.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 76c | 26.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0205…dc0cbacked No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…7d04backed No | 76c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.