Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb11d4bd430782bcea0e103c2bff40622627673c8eeb783cc5ff4837946a3820f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 78c | 1,984$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.32 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 43c | 1,718$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.98 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 44c | 1,006$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.72 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 45c | 502.89$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.15 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 27c | 396.16$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.12 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 359.79$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 50c | 340.04$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.22 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d4…2eb3backed Yes | 53c | 315.83$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 39c | 308.96$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…d983backed Yes | 48c | 294.59$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 50c | 291.37$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.7 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 49c | 281.32$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 60c | 281.08$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.21 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…c2a6backed Yes | 49c | 277.83$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 46c | 262.24$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 244.65$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ba…26afbacked Yes | 54c | 244.16$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 51c | 243.87$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.57 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…3f8bbacked No | 53c | 240.43$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a2fdbacked Yes | 34c | 240$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 235.06$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.28 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 233.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 49c | 226.71$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd198…6569backed Yes | 49c | 224.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 49c | 220.4$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.15 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 49c | 202.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc041…411cbacked Yes | 48c | 186.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 45c | 185.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.34 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed No | 56c | 185.09$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 55c | 181.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 35c | 179.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 30c | 177.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…5371backed Yes | 42c | 176.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…da5dbacked Yes | 45c | 153.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 56c | 152.01$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e7…65f5backed Yes | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 47c | 149$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…e789backed Yes | 47c | 148.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 38c | 147.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 39c | 146.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 50c | 145.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…416abacked Yes | 49c | 133$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…afbdbacked No | 60c | 127.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc130…669fbacked Yes | 55c | 126.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeea…70b7backed Yes | 50c | 118.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 76c | 107.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 51c | 105.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…a020backed Yes | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 50c | 104.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 38c | 101.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 51c | 100.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…661dbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked No | 56c | 96.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 21c | 95.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed No | 53c | 95.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 50c | 93.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed No | 69c | 91.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 50c | 91.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…c440backed Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…a2fdbacked No | 56c | 89.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d5…733dbacked Yes | 51c | 89.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c66…e4bfbacked Yes | 52c | 87.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 50c | 84.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…4cccbacked Yes | 43c | 84.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…e96dbacked Yes | 49c | 80.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4663…1273backed Yes | 52c | 75.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…a03abacked Yes | 51c | 75.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 48c | 73.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4e…778fbacked Yes | 50c | 72.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 37c | 70.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 46c | 69.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 25c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 53c | 67.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 37c | 65.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2042…643fbacked Yes | 54c | 65.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 43c | 63.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 62.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c01…9d5ebacked No | 65c | 61.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…e42dbacked Yes | 54c | 60.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…00a8backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…6521backed No | 66c | 59.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…ae79backed No | 56c | 59.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 38c | 59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 50c | 58.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3e…e116backed Yes | 52c | 57.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 53c | 57.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7073…0ca3backed Yes | 52c | 57.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed Yes | 41c | 57.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…0388backed Yes | 44c | 57.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049f…c09ebacked Yes | 39c | 55.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 31c | 54.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 53.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 54c | 51.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.