TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$337,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $337,640 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a57…2afabacked Over51c139,914$71,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,269.068944.9%40 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Under49c50,000$24,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,50023147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Under55c45,549$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,548.8936549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Under49c40,827$20,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,821.5320948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under49c32,676$15,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,779.644,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over52c26,445$13,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,722.612,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Over51c24,993$12,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,811.081,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Under49c10,273$5,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,256.8137747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under51c8,500$4,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,16521653.7%116 W · 100 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Over52c7,310$3,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,800.9787451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over42c6,126$2,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,582.45,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under49c5,528$2,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,839.494,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under49c5,469$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,789.3938946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Under49c5,238$2,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,671.640350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Under49c4,918$2,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,508.3770246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Under48c4,329$2,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,251.058154.3%44 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over49c4,140$2,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,032.954,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Under52c3,883$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,883.1526637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdd1…77f2backed Under48c3,868$1,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.35450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Over64c3,130$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00017246.5%80 W · 92 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Under50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.456453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Over48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.9421143.1%91 W · 120 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over49c2,973$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.913,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over52c2,790$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.865750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Under51c2,538$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.3941649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over45c2,036$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9162,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xece7…6979backed Over52c2,017$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.5112147.1%57 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over49c1,630$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.16,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Under51c1,618$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.6556043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under52c1,564$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.5650754.2%275 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over50c1,498$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.732,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over40c1,464$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.711,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under48c1,310$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.362,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over44c1,273$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.122,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under36c1,266$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.241,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78fa…bbcebacked Under49c1,256$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.531050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Under49c1,163$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.2732150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under52c1,155$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.392,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86bb…54ebbacked Under49c1,146$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.461361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under49c1,129$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.282,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Under49c1,114$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.2917144.4%76 W · 95 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Under48c1,050$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5468747.1%41 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Over48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48024151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4daa…db78backed Under51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.39785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+60.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf676…09c5backed Over51c980$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.81838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under35c951.71$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.613,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over51c938.12$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.098,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under49c925.7$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.713,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Under48c833$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.2224138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed Over47c638.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011142.3%47 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under50c625.87$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.242,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd222…6441backed Over51c621$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.711844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over49c563$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.871,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c480.79$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.449,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Under50c472.12$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.2351354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa041…f9d5backed Under49c455$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.052147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Over47c439.45$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.547852.6%41 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over33c434.91$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.742,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Over48c415$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.254747.5%260 W · 287 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Under49c404.84$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.4789853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Under19c400.04$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.0714636.3%53 W · 93 L+16.4wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+58.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Over27c399.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10820744%91 W · 116 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb227…8809backed Under53c377.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.5511157.7%64 W · 47 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over65c372$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24095452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under27c328$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.6852230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Over51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15325846.9%121 W · 137 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacba…40a1backed Under75c290$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.52941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Under49c283.51$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.5940546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99fa…97a9backed Over50c240$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over43c237.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.665,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over52c211.54$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11039552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa793…2bb7backed Under49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.082466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+30.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Under52c202.15$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0476552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Over52c194.26$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0127246.7%127 W · 145 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Over50c180.1$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9072250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under52c179.82$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.863,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under44c174.39$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.572,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07a0…7a80backed Over58c173.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002763%17 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Under49c150.44$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8235843.6%156 W · 202 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Over47c148.33$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5864844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Under71c141.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0725550.2%128 W · 127 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under63c140$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.71,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe062…61fdbacked Over48c135.42$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a6…eaecbacked Over50c131.66$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.782050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over76c131.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036453%193 W · 171 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2720…7a59backed Over71c127.06$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.21812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick43cpaid-70.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under40c125.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.41,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Under42c123.27$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.845452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Over50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6033246.1%153 W · 179 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under50c117.09$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.131,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a67…0b8abacked Over46c116$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.423950.6%121 W · 118 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.745445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x322f…65a5backed Under52c108.52$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5211943.7%52 W · 67 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8939…ffdfbacked Over52c108.16$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.242142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5599…326dbacked Over57c106.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-33.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5055444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d3…bd58backed Under49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.043727%10 W · 27 L-5.5wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-36.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.