TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$141,895

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,895 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a57…2afabacked Over51c57,570$29,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,512.278944.9%40 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Under49c49,468$24,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,301.9723147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c15,401$7,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,002.549,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Over52c14,372$7,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,433.751,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Under47c13,511$6,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,160.8948343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb4…47c2backed Over53c12,529$6,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,615.03812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.37per pick50cpaid-77.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under47c8,426$3,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,498.844,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Under49c7,141$3,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,641.8270246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over52c6,847$3,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,560.664,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Over50c5,871$2,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,935.2621143.1%91 W · 120 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x128f…db9dbacked Over55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10020651.5%106 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over3c1,992$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4167921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under49c1,837$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.872,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Under47c1,742$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.2631643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Under46c1,600$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86435749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under40c1,196$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.671,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Over25c1,160$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.3624138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb90…c431backed Over52c1,154$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under47c1,104$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.086,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Over54c1,100$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59413959.7%83 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under45c1,041$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.095,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under79c1,026$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.21,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under50c949.38$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.262,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over66c880.53$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.152,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Under47c836.17$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.1715141.1%62 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over51c788.6$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.513,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b6…3d60backed Over51c588.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Under50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25051753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over45c442.99$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3524053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Under49c400.51$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.6589853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e32…d479backed Over5c399.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013115.3%20 W · 111 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-47.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Under47c309.83$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.2135843.6%156 W · 202 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Under47c275.55$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.123946.4%111 W · 128 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under48c222.66$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.783,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over55c218.18$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12095452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked Over53c202.58$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3716552.7%87 W · 78 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Under50c179.78$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8939943.1%172 W · 227 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1c0…427bbacked Under48c134.51$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9518446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86a8…d0e7backed Over51c131.37$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710955%60 W · 49 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over51c117.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6023657.2%135 W · 101 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecf9…9372backed Over52c98.04$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.013441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under48c80.34$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.881,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Over52c78.96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2727246.7%127 W · 145 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed Under50c75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.511652.6%61 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd95…52fbbacked Over55c73.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4013938.8%54 W · 85 L-14.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd68c…025abacked Over53c67.41$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.731127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Under48c67.25$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9743544.6%194 W · 241 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe02f…3d4cbacked Over51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309545.3%43 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under33c56.15$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.371,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Over33c54.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0232866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over43c54.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.195,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Under54c53.25$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.545452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Under25c52.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0814636.3%53 W · 93 L+16.4wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+58.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xac60…8980backed Under48c52.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.09875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+52.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0eec…89babacked Under49c51.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.253259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under54c50.94$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.273,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8939…ffdfbacked Over52c49.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.662142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked Under47c47.66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2618143.1%78 W · 103 L-12.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb87…4611backed Over54c42.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2312151.2%62 W · 59 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc89…3015backed Over52c38.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.191947.4%9 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6276…7f2ebacked Under80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.519166.5%127 W · 64 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c70…eaf8backed Under48c37.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.53554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Under48c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5944844.2%198 W · 250 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under51c29.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7665630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xcc0b…4db0backed Over53c28.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518459.2%109 W · 75 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under46c27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5846447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Under48c27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0453945.3%244 W · 295 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed Under48c26.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0322148%106 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over75c26.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.193,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under46c25.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8260945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29a5…65c5backed Under49c24.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.631154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under49c22.66$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5645460.4%274 W · 180 L+21.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a33…9a46backed Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013953.2%74 W · 65 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfffb…5f95backed Under50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1024150.2%121 W · 120 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Under50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1015347.1%72 W · 81 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Over51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.232148.3%155 W · 166 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e6a…d38abacked Under50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8af5…cd81backed Under62c19.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.351770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.