TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Thunder, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$702,166

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $702,166 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Warriors52c451,379$232,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218,795.2387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Thunder49c200,000$98,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98,0002,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Thunder48c137,512$66,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,005.7666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Warriors49c65,987$32,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,653.1772648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors51c65,667$33,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,268.812,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Thunder49c34,872$17,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,087.3438251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe56d…2b65backed Thunder51c31,373$16,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,0007552%39 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder47c27,404$12,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,953.084,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Thunder48c25,000$12,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,1101,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Thunder53c18,868$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder49c16,000$7,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,9002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Thunder47c13,300$6,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,25135744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Thunder47c12,544$5,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,895.6837842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Warriors50c12,488$6,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,2441,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Thunder50c11,861$5,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,930.4529243.8%128 W · 164 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Thunder50c10,320$5,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1604535.6%16 W · 29 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Thunder51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10024045.4%109 W · 131 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Thunder46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,599.9943148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Thunder51c9,228$4,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70637747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Warriors51c9,105$4,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,460.172,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder49c7,822$3,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,811.449,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe584…e6e2backed Thunder47c5,316$2,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,498.753250%16 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Thunder51c4,607$2,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.4825049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc920…7914backed Warriors50c4,571$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,285.598648.8%42 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Warriors56c4,470$2,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.012,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked Thunder57c4,296$2,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4408838.6%34 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd1…77f2backed Thunder50c4,020$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Thunder49c3,920$1,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,920.6324942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Thunder49c3,333$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,633.1714753.1%78 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa368…d116backed Thunder51c2,772$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.762839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Thunder51c2,609$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.588148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Warriors54c2,295$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.613,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Warriors54c2,105$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.2956646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Thunder49c2,050$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0048747.1%41 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f76…5a0fbacked Thunder49c1,860$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Warriors48c1,715$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.819645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Thunder53c1,509$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80028554.7%156 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Thunder52c1,210$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.224151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Thunder51c1,200$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61250239%196 W · 306 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors41c956.12$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.114,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder49c860.29$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.823,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Warriors45c838.08$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.245,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Thunder50c759.38$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.7424138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c5…6394backed Thunder50c700.22$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.113447.1%16 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Warriors52c700$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3369842.9%42 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Thunder50c664$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33217144.4%76 W · 95 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Thunder50c658.78$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.3957650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c0…5930backed Warriors50c620$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3105152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3e5…697abacked Warriors51c589.61$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.6120650%103 W · 103 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Thunder57c520.84$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.881,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Thunder52c520$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.417744.1%78 W · 99 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Warriors51c468.15$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.392,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5734…698bbacked Thunder51c414.71$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.51060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Thunder48c412.53$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.0118043.3%78 W · 102 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Warriors49c408.47$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.471,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4e2…5ec0backed Warriors49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2046253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Thunder51c398.04$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20318241.2%75 W · 107 L-17.6wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Warriors50c391.65$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.832,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Thunder46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13828348.8%138 W · 145 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480e…90c7backed Thunder47c287.19$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9815446.8%72 W · 82 L-12.0wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Warriors48c271.49$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.4991846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x699c…5dc1backed Thunder48c264.58$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1272050%10 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Warriors47c264.5$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.1880737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Thunder50c211.2$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.163,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Thunder52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10461957.5%356 W · 263 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4786…ff95backed Thunder52c193.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022646.9%106 W · 120 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6495…6cd7backed Warriors54c186.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.885257.7%30 W · 22 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Thunder54c185.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.061,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Warriors55c180.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.832952.9%174 W · 155 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Warriors49c163.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2739552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0469…c8d4backed Thunder47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b04…38b2backed Warriors49c102.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.141258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Thunder50c100.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3714046.4%65 W · 75 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00b7…5b93backed Thunder49c99.55$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.925651.6%132 W · 124 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Warriors52c97.03$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.241,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaec…968cbacked Thunder53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Warriors53c93.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8353453.4%285 W · 249 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Warriors54c92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3239055.6%217 W · 173 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed Thunder53c90$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.711652.6%61 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65eb…e197backed Thunder57c87.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.983342.4%14 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x508d…3961backed Thunder48c83.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4013738.7%53 W · 84 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Warriors54c78.87$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2845445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d4b…284abacked Thunder48c78.83$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.843243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Warriors52c73.33$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5392750.6%469 W · 458 L-1.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Warriors51c69.92$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9962844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Warriors51c68.35$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4448852%254 W · 234 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7649…a58dbacked Thunder50c65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.54252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaec…eaafbacked Thunder47c63.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3029348.5%142 W · 151 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Warriors50c62.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4934248.8%167 W · 175 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Thunder53c59.6$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5967248.8%328 W · 344 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x35b8…898abacked Thunder53c56.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308754%47 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Thunder47c52.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.491,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Thunder48c52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9653839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Thunder53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.538464.3%247 W · 137 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ab…f338backed Thunder50c48.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4427350.2%137 W · 136 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd347…a708backed Thunder56c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4512…5d41backed Warriors46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4821637.5%81 W · 135 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec89…8de0backed Thunder48c42.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205860.3%35 W · 23 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x911d…2438backed Thunder53c39.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216654.5%36 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf9…7560backed Thunder52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208143.2%35 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.