TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-14.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Thunder, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$262,701

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,701 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Warriors50c60,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,00032653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Thunder46c35,764$16,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,6007240.3%29 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba93…2740backed Thunder50c28,286$14,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,165.74875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Warriors52c25,857$13,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,359.2387144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Warriors55c22,130$12,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,904.5819645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Warriors56c18,388$10,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,090.511,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Warriors58c14,234$8,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,948.1738251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed Thunder44c10,845$4,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,764.749440.4%38 W · 56 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Warriors55c10,217$5,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,591.59,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors53c7,627$4,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,609.722,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder42c7,607$3,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,160.428,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder45c7,498$3,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,372.614,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Thunder44c6,297$2,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,770.5554246.7%253 W · 289 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Thunder42c6,013$2,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,510.9624942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Warriors63c5,750$3,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,130.562,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder37c5,662$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,095.284,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Thunder50c5,578$2,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,788.819445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Thunder50c5,539$2,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,769.78148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x919c…06d8backed Thunder43c5,278$2,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.0219852%103 W · 95 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked Thunder41c5,127$2,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,102.17653.9%41 W · 35 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3860…0efcbacked Thunder50c5,127$2,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,563.3812950.4%65 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Thunder51c5,075$2,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,588.27850%39 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Thunder50c5,049$2,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,524.432150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Thunder41c4,318$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770.8837842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Thunder50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00029347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Warriors51c3,921$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.2917050%85 W · 85 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Warriors55c3,636$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.431,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors49c3,599$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,835.461,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Thunder50c3,384$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.012,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Warriors51c3,272$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.311,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Thunder51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5301833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder50c3,000$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.794,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Warriors56c2,785$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.4572648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors56c2,763$1,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.416,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Warriors52c2,595$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.463,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Warriors50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Warriors54c2,262$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.3841553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Thunder50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00041649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Warriors49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02021446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3280…ea74backed Warriors51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.789531.6%30 W · 65 L-11.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Warriors52c1,747$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.671,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x258b…270ebacked Thunder51c1,660$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.7417748%85 W · 92 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors58c1,647$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.434,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Thunder51c1,580$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80028554.7%156 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Warriors56c1,500$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.0314448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Warriors59c1,424$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.812,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Thunder51c1,342$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.6639051.5%201 W · 189 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Thunder50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Thunder51c852.94$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43519359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Thunder50c803.58$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.7961747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c67…a0e0backed Thunder51c784.31$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40029646.6%138 W · 158 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Thunder50c691.45$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.953,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Thunder42c643.64$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.3316943.8%74 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Warriors56c607$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.081,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Thunder51c545.58$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27847651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Warriors50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25054549.5%270 W · 275 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Warriors50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.1962539.4%246 W · 379 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Thunder51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25566645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Warriors54c474.29$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.33,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Warriors51c419.92$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.761,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Thunder51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041,88837.3%704 W · 1,184 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Warriors57c361.52$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.161,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Thunder50c350$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17573649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd350…8ae8backed Warriors60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.334734%16 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Thunder46c324.71$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15052146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadf6…4eaabacked Warriors56c314.33$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.311546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Thunder46c309.59$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4145646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Warriors56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.191050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Thunder51c282.35$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14426048.1%125 W · 135 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Thunder48c275.76$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1545151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Thunder51c260.2$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.083,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Warriors50c240$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1205225%13 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Thunder50c233.94$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9729652.7%156 W · 140 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Thunder41c222.73$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3517041.8%71 W · 99 L-11.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Thunder43c214.36$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1730151.8%156 W · 145 L-1.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Thunder45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9035444.6%158 W · 196 L+1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Thunder46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9247748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54fe…5850backed Warriors55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902962.1%18 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Thunder51c196.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028046.8%131 W · 149 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Thunder50c196.07$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7974547.2%352 W · 393 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Warriors51c196$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.041,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Thunder51c176.52$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9072250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Warriors49c166.72$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.0355846.8%261 W · 297 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Thunder49c160$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.495548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Thunder44c158.08$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.562,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Thunder46c155$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2156547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Thunder51c153.76$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8945452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Warriors55c150$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.549351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Warriors55c150$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5542853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Thunder45c133.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6016745.5%76 W · 91 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Warriors53c125.93$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8557650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Warriors50c119.73$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7333246.1%153 W · 179 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Thunder43c116.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025655.5%142 W · 114 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Warriors56c113.36$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.881,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7509…d031backed Thunder49c104.24$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.720847.1%98 W · 110 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Thunder47c100.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4724138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x819a…4b03backed Warriors59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4114151.8%73 W · 68 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Warriors57c98.57$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.051,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd4e…1483backed Thunder51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.