TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,301

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,301 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x72b4…7d67backed Over45c35,501$15,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,975.430845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Under55c6,676$3,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,004.0752460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under55c4,483$2,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,016.639,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under55c3,803$2,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,728.774,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under45c2,475$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.384,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under56c1,200$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.9833146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under55c1,178$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.23,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6eb…5402backed Under57c1,009$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.7711159.5%66 W · 45 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Over44c990$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.695651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under54c766$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.366,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under56c679.17$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.124,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over61c672.57$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.622,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under55c618.18$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.1887453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over55c549.38$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.163,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Over44c523.45$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.0124138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over56c501.88$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.098,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Over44c453.96$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7429243.8%128 W · 164 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under56c341.99$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.993,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Over45c333.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15052146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Over44c320$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.845646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over44c303.87$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.72,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Under53c225.27$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.81,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under55c182$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.91,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under51c160.8$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.791,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Over44c160$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.456547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over47c159.57$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.673,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over55c149$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.952,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55fc…8b73backed Over44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-45%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Under56c109.87$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5637549.6%186 W · 189 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd8c…dfbebacked Over55c105.45$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under55c102.3$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4664844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over55c102.25$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2445445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c8a…7764backed Under57c101$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Under56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4415156.3%85 W · 66 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c9d…8498backed Over44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445648.2%27 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over30c82.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.681,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over44c80$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.257250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6495…6cd7backed Under52c76.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.925257.7%30 W · 22 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Over48c76.92$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9237665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Over54c74.79$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5845452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over54c69.94$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.943,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed Under55c68.7$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9111652.6%61 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3055444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddf5…aaa3backed Over44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309844.9%44 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under55c66$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4823350.6%118 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Under35c65$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5524334.2%83 W · 160 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Over57c62.79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7912543.2%54 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaa1…176bbacked Over44c56.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257048.6%34 W · 36 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Over44c56.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2593145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Under54c53.47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.420762.3%129 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa75d…1d45backed Under57c52.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6322347.1%105 W · 118 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc467…4cc3backed Under54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1c…1f45backed Over49c39.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.285743.9%25 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Over42c39.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5732866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over44c38.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8152552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over48c38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.245,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Under53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7440344.4%179 W · 224 L-23.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e9d…9e33backed Under54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0411663.8%74 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb2d…cd74backed Under55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3612364.2%79 W · 44 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Under55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3610957.8%63 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e78…8bb1backed Over44c36.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1650%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c80…9564backed Under57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0912159.5%72 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked Under54c34.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8328536.8%105 W · 180 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe825…39b7backed Over49c30.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.072927.6%8 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-40%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over50c28.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.421,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7509…d031backed Under56c27.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3920847.1%98 W · 110 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Over60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1591846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7c7…24c2backed Under72c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over44c24.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.932,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Over55c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.139055.6%217 W · 173 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6436…aa37backed Over49c20.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.056841.2%28 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb28a…ba10backed Over49c20.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.051450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784f…7593backed Over49c20.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.051650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e7…80d0backed Over49c20.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.051450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81d…b365backed Under57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.611149.5%55 W · 56 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Under54c19.06$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7755751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.