TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$636,998

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $636,998 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over50c574,106$286,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286,916.4187451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under50c200,000$100,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,0002,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Under50c150,000$75,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,00026253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under50c74,443$37,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,185.034,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Under50c52,364$26,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,181.966248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under50c29,118$14,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,5591,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Under53c11,287$5,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,358.017638.2%29 W · 47 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Under50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Under52c7,606$3,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,650.7132846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under50c7,500$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7502,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Under51c5,445$2,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,668.2248343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under50c4,555$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,269.253,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under51c4,500$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2154,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Under50c3,750$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,87513563%85 W · 50 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Under50c3,333$1,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.514753.1%78 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over48c3,036$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.068,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Over50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50013435.8%48 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Under51c2,941$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.1856453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under50c2,121$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.533,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Under54c1,863$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.1512951.9%67 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under52c1,667$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.1664651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over55c1,583$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.642,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under51c1,569$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.812,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over48c1,516$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.959,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over47c1,200$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.934,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5005,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5008747.1%41 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49019958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Under51c986$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.2454443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over47c833.51$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.422,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under51c651$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.991,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Under49c541.1$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.424138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over46c523.85$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.972,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over48c520.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25054549.5%270 W · 275 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x677f…1c6ebacked Under50c495$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+76%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under50c480$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24087453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under68c459.37$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1471,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Under50c426.12$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.0655846.8%261 W · 297 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x666f…9860backed Under51c344$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.566055%33 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf498…3d66backed Under51c329.08$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.0811855.1%65 W · 53 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe975…9d22backed Under51c306.98$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.9818055%99 W · 81 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under51c298.73$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.716,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Under51c256.44$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.6757650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under53c252.84$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.063,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Under51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.553945.3%244 W · 295 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe63d…0545backed Under50c233.26$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.634560%27 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Under50c225$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.526756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Under31c219.9$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.5714636.3%53 W · 93 L+16.4wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+58.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Over65c204.61$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13391846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under35c204.61$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13352230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9633146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9827…6c61backed Under51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.14158.5%24 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+13.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba69…b2debacked Under51c197.58$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.813964.1%25 W · 14 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Under52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3126956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcce5…7eb2backed Under52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3114156.7%80 W · 61 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under52c185.58$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1871449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7554…491cbacked Over44c181.82$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.28per pick35cpaid-88%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Over43c180.21$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0653149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf10…691bbacked Under51c173.12$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1213751.1%70 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf5…815bbacked Under51c171.19$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1915453.2%82 W · 72 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x985e…6894backed Under51c169.53$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.0710761.7%66 W · 41 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x68d8…4cc6backed Under51c164.18$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.1814455.6%80 W · 64 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeef…5667backed Under51c163.32$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.3215253.3%81 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Under50c157.08$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5418043.3%78 W · 102 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ea…066ebacked Under51c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.54358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Under51c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.543544.6%194 W · 241 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Under52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7242853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Under51c147.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0621753%115 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dd8…f9e3backed Under51c147.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.066258.1%36 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x383d…87eabacked Under51c125.49$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4947852.9%253 W · 225 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a4…65c3backed Under50c124.8$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.47256.9%41 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fa…222bbacked Under50c111.92$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9618250%91 W · 91 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Under51c110.75$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2736045%162 W · 198 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Under50c106.58$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2983158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over54c101.96$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4631249.4%154 W · 158 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Over50c100.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053453.4%285 W · 249 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37fa…1136backed Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c5…4d7abacked Under51c98.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.211947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Under51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0497049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b46…944cbacked Under51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0417155.6%95 W · 76 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c9d…1299backed Under51c98.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.035648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Over49c96.91$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3914046.4%65 W · 75 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Under54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.597247.2%34 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Under49c90.05$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5245452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3319…ba79backed Under50c83.04$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5210456.7%59 W · 45 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Under51c81.58$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.011637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-35.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under50c80.85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.432,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79df…277ebacked Under51c78.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.636556.9%37 W · 28 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02f5…5c6cbacked Under50c78$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396753.7%36 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under49c74.44$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.173,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…ae72backed Under51c65.34$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0214951.7%77 W · 72 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…2db8backed Over49c65$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.174837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-31.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Under52c64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7295260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Under54c62.96$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9654854.2%297 W · 251 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7649…a58dbacked Under51c62.5$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.624252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fae…d503backed Under51c60.39$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5910452.9%55 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1912…def8backed Under52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.82147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.