TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Gentle Mates vs BBL Esports (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BBL Esportsof Gentle Mates, BBL Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$392,075
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$412,446

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $392,075 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 326 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc65c…ea39backed BBL Esports55c68,144$37,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,798.834356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Gentle Mates51c59,042$30,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,321.227236.1%26 W · 46 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed BBL Esports49c11,630$5,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,931.2313558.5%79 W · 56 L+11.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d91…bb2abacked Gentle Mates50c10,965$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5007659.2%45 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755d…37e7backed BBL Esports79c10,514$8,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,210.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Gentle Mates45c9,256$4,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,147.4411433.3%38 W · 76 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BBL Esports49c8,428$4,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,271.4193148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Gentle Mates51c8,308$4,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,260.144131.7%13 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed BBL Esports52c7,502$3,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,612.867456.8%42 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BBL Esports55c7,000$3,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,183.4468458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Gentle Mates42c6,443$2,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,712.473129%9 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Gentle Mates47c6,213$2,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,945.0110840.7%44 W · 64 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked BBL Esports56c5,896$3,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,605.311662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+30.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BBL Esports51c5,555$2,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,723.9165559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x907c…85c8backed BBL Esports49c4,500$2,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,291.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed BBL Esports55c4,428$2,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,99462156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked BBL Esports57c4,269$2,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.133161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Gentle Mates48c3,996$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.731,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Gentle Mates59c3,934$2,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,311.9528541.1%117 W · 168 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed BBL Esports49c3,829$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,952.684647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Gentle Mates47c3,802$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,784.0541537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Gentle Mates48c3,665$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.0724946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed BBL Esports77c3,575$2,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.34450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8f9…fee2backed BBL Esports47c3,284$1,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,750.7128247.5%134 W · 148 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…bb5dbacked BBL Esports34c3,146$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.552853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Gentle Mates52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56016952.1%88 W · 81 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked BBL Esports45c2,982$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.196445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed BBL Esports49c2,895$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.8233759.6%201 W · 136 L+18.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Gentle Mates53c2,863$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.56647%31 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41d2…5d69backed BBL Esports49c2,820$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c5…4d7abacked Gentle Mates71c2,807$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed BBL Esports50c2,320$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1639845.9%45 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x697f…b756backed Gentle Mates52c2,150$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11813345.9%61 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec15…665fbacked Gentle Mates26c2,027$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.874027.5%11 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc983…ebf0backed Gentle Mates33c1,963$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.572951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Gentle Mates50c1,960$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.326050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked Gentle Mates50c1,929$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Gentle Mates50c1,910$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9552147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Gentle Mates54c1,865$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d04…d4d9backed BBL Esports64c1,779$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.151163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+69.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7927…33cfbacked BBL Esports50c1,668$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Gentle Mates40c1,651$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.2454342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Gentle Mates52c1,635$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8502744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbc5…2585backed BBL Esports58c1,600$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.581580%12 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2733…ac38backed Gentle Mates74c1,546$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.52944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ad…dc9abacked BBL Esports49c1,540$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Gentle Mates39c1,443$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.273627.8%10 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-45.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Gentle Mates50c1,270$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b0…df70backed Gentle Mates50c1,199$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.731457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked BBL Esports60c1,185$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.819062.2%56 W · 34 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Gentle Mates66c1,156$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.198835.2%31 W · 57 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-32.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Gentle Mates38c1,153$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.4288844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed Gentle Mates27c1,119$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.486418.8%12 W · 52 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed BBL Esports51c1,111$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.397052.9%37 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed BBL Esports50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50033348.3%161 W · 172 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked BBL Esports49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5103246.9%15 W · 17 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+37.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Gentle Mates28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2809837.8%37 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed BBL Esports50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50028541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed BBL Esports37c999.97$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.986051.7%31 W · 29 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xabd6…ca90backed BBL Esports52c999$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.521566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed Gentle Mates32c997$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.281540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8da1…339ebacked BBL Esports51c987.98$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.985040%20 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed BBL Esports51c963.65$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.028551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb597…2949backed Gentle Mates50c952.36$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.56616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-74.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Gentle Mates39c924.79$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.6712138.8%47 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Gentle Mates46c914.77$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.9177929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1e7c…cbaabacked BBL Esports53c844.34$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.313941%16 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Gentle Mates49c837.81$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.534535.6%16 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Gentle Mates44c807.56$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.143729.7%11 W · 26 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-48.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Gentle Mates50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked BBL Esports49c800$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40812750.4%64 W · 63 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x689a…97a4backed Gentle Mates49c799.98$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.36per pick52cpaid-63.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked Gentle Mates51c777$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.273855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked BBL Esports56c773.56$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.0736138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked BBL Esports39c772$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.321055.2%116 W · 94 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Gentle Mates42c746.85$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.391323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed BBL Esports49c700$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3573548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbca…9863backed Gentle Mates53c696.62$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.9220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Gentle Mates36c694.44$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed BBL Esports62c640.57$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.982133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Gentle Mates66c630.13$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.517537.7%66 W · 109 L-14.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed BBL Esports56c622.95$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.422737%10 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked BBL Esports52c612.12$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.8178562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed BBL Esports65c600$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2106672.7%48 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Gentle Mates48c600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28855152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Gentle Mates34c595.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010460.6%63 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed BBL Esports51c592.31$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.3119655.6%109 W · 87 L+12.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Gentle Mates52c577.88$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.56339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed Gentle Mates52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked BBL Esports51c525.49$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.494040%16 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed BBL Esports48c520$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.416142.9%69 W · 92 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26e3…0b75backed BBL Esports49c510.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.210551.4%54 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9425…f025backed Gentle Mates43c502.86$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Gentle Mates52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26039042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7253…505abacked BBL Esports68c500$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb03…eb4fbacked Gentle Mates22c493.89$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.47540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae6f…a3aabacked Gentle Mates26c481.11$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.92520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed BBL Esports49c477.23$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.391838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid+19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ef0…7adebacked BBL Esports52c467.55$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.517145.1%32 W · 39 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Gentle Mates43c461.88$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.61450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.