NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd01d179fe5d9a2cfd99fe011bcd977dfef2af2a4a6f15a075799d904530659b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Under | 28c | 2,348$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.21 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 72c | 2,287$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.6 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 74c | 2,051$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.75 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 28c | 1,226$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.97 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…162fbacked Under | 40c | 1,203$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.02 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed Under | 29c | 1,151$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.68 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 24c | 1,017$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.51 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed Over | 72c | 991.29$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 28c | 727.9$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.81 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 65c | 699.99$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 67c | 675.54$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.03 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 32c | 624.78$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Under | 27c | 622.34$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.03 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 73c | 541.11$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.51 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 71c | 443.55$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.11 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0e…6541backed Over | 74c | 399.08$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3468…e71ebacked Under | 33c | 391.6$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 76c | 352.58$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba5…cb7dbacked Over | 67c | 214.16$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 25c | 211.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 72c | 193.55$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Over | 76c | 154.47$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Over | 74c | 149.71$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Under | 33c | 119.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Under | 28c | 109.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 79c | 87.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6ee7backed Over | 74c | 74.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 73c | 74.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 31c | 73.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 28c | 67.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 80c | 59.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +11.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 20c | 53.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…8f73backed Under | 29c | 49.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 27c | 42.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 75c | 39.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0664…f7f0backed Under | 37c | 39.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked Over | 74c | 29.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Over | 80c | 29.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Over | 70c | 27.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 64c | 24.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 68c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Over | 73c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…752abacked Over | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Over | 73c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5this page
- Penguins vs. FlyersPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.