NHL · resolved market
Spread: Flyers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x240fcf87fa7900957308f768bb555dd95d9b62398d864f262ce7ff9ede1146e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Flyers, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Penguins | 68c | 4,066$2,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.85 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Flyers | 32c | 2,974$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.63 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Flyers | 32c | 2,334$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.27 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Penguins | 68c | 1,130$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.88 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Penguins | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Flyers | 21c | 973.39$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.36 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Penguins | 69c | 948.46$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.18 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Flyers | 32c | 855.42$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.35 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Flyers | 30c | 798.34$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.79 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Penguins | 69c | 503.46$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.65 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Flyers | 32c | 498.67$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.57 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Penguins | 69c | 480$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.58 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Penguins | 68c | 479.11$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.32 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Penguins | 68c | 460$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Flyers | 11c | 415$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Penguins | 71c | 408.02$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.15 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Penguins | 68c | 387.9$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.13 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Flyers | 16c | 383.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Penguins | 69c | 333.59$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.41 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Flyers | 19c | 322.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Flyers | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Penguins | 68c | 215$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Penguins | 68c | 212.83$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…18c6backed Flyers | 18c | 209.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Penguins | 68c | 166.63$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Flyers | 32c | 148.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Flyers | 19c | 134.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Flyers | 10c | 123.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Flyers | 31c | 123.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Flyers | 32c | 119.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x739b…34cdbacked Flyers | 32c | 118.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Flyers | 19c | 106.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Flyers | 31c | 101.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Flyers | 30c | 94.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Flyers | 32c | 93.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Penguins | 77c | 59.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Penguins | 68c | 58.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Flyers | 32c | 57.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Flyers | 19c | 52.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Flyers | 31c | 52.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Penguins | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Flyers | 30c | 49.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Penguins | 70c | 48.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Flyers | 31c | 46.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…ad43backed Flyers | 31c | 43.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Penguins | 69c | 39.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Flyers | 31c | 38.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Penguins | 69c | 36.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9cf1backed Penguins | 70c | 29.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. FlyersPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.