MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa17610dfaa49f6372df8f2d1d26892ed76deef545fe61080d073cd2add244568
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 10,407$4,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,884.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 7,569$4,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,297.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 63c | 2,376$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.12 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 76c | 1,601$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.24 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 1,560$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.35 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 61c | 1,294$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.29 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 1,269$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 52c | 629.5$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.19 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 25c | 579.43$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.62 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 23c | 477.33$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 39c | 427.29$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.64 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 61c | 424.01$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.36 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 63c | 381.13$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.88 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 29c | 303$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 30c | 294$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 31c | 250.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Under | 71c | 245$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 48c | 242.97$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 53c | 226.48$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.56 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 48c | 212.92$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.72 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Over | 32c | 189$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 164.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 27c | 142$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 119.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 118.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Under | 62c | 117.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 48c | 102.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 52c | 97.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 32c | 95.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Over | 56c | 89.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 37c | 88.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 25c | 87.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 30c | 84.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Over | 56c | 83.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 69c | 62.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Over | 48c | 54.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 42c | 54.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 41c | 53.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 39c | 43.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 39c | 43.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 76c | 41.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed Over | 30c | 36.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…c745backed Under | 69c | 32.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 68c | 28.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 55c | 27.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed Over | 49c | 26.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 41c | 26.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 74c | 24.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 53c | 24.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 74c | 23.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Over | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Over | 67c | 19.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 70c | 17.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 68c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4023…5746backed Under | 72c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.