MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83be884c87ad7b3aeaab0ceec9b5cc38a1de1b3cd1990e4ead1076600cb8da44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 1,145$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 774.69$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 461.53$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 30c | 460.76$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Seattle Mariners | 31c | 434.26$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.39 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 371$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.38 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 241.65$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.19 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 239.68$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.41 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 160.52$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 143.34$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.93 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Seattle Mariners | 19c | 131.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…ad51backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 115.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 113.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 105$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 104.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 100.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Seattle Mariners | 32c | 98.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 84.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 84.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 78.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 49.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 43.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 38.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Seattle Mariners | 31c | 35.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 34.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 77c | 32.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 29.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 26.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 24.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4023…5746backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 22.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.