MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2ae31b090d1a8ba04d9c15eaad989b3c320069b2464241d7f4a82a165bcd121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 505.82$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 502.88$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.7 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 488.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.19 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 487$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 425.39$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 399.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 300.93$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.53 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 229$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 206.64$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Baltimore Orioles | 22c | 204.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 200.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.72 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 197.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.04 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 189.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 76c | 164$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.02 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Seattle Mariners | 26c | 136.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 27c | 136$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 113.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 112.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 102.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 100.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Seattle Mariners | 78c | 85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 78.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 78.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 69.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 63.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 55.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 48.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 41.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 33.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 31.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…5eb0backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 30.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 21.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Seattle Mariners | 72c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4023…5746backed Seattle Mariners | 76c | 18.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 18.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Seattle Mariners | 63c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Seattle Mariners | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed Seattle Mariners | 74c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Seattle Mariners | 72c | 13.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.