Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc02c126fa4109b88ecbfb6af8f1527e86b53ee30b329dd25509522b7052dcd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3270…e011backed Yes | 8c | 3,611$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 2c | 3,501$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 18c | 2,232$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.73 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 69c | 2,169$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.11 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 1,117$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,106$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0143…239abacked Yes | 15c | 1,003$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 45c | 999.99$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 9c | 926.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 5c | 813.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed Yes | 3c | 796.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 8c | 767.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…944dbacked Yes | 20c | 751.74$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +812.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27da…d24abacked Yes | 7c | 740$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 4c | 716.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaa…80dbbacked Yes | 50c | 601.2$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 21c | 600$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…05e4backed Yes | 18c | 593.8$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 9c | 450.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 5c | 434.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…d1e7backed Yes | 20c | 400.49$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes | 5c | 333$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 5c | 307.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…21b4backed Yes | 20c | 300.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed Yes | 15c | 291.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 4c | 270$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bf…75b5backed Yes | 14c | 217.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 27c | 170.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 8c | 160.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…0482backed Yes | 18c | 158.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f28…119bbacked Yes | 21c | 135.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…8b9dbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 20c | 106.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…c150backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 16c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…b625backed Yes | 16c | 77.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5a…e224backed Yes | 16c | 71.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ef…3679backed Yes | 16c | 71.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 26c | 70.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d3…7d51backed Yes | 16c | 70.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd20a…098dbacked Yes | 18c | 56.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2a…7678backed Yes | 28c | 54.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde99…05bfbacked Yes | 23c | 51.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb731…5797backed Yes | 47c | 42.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 70c | 25.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…3f97backed No | 61c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked No | 61c | 19.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 10?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 16?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 20?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 21?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 23?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 24?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 28?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 29?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 2?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 30?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 31?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 4?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 5?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.