TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,002
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,258

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,002 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c66…44f3backed Yes13c11,092$1,479 inLost-$1,479.153531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes6c5,501$342 inLost-$342.1164339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes8c2,421$190 inLost-$189.7111436%41 W · 73 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf96…9942backed Yes6c1,745$100 inLost-$1002729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-50.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes6c1,333$80 inLost-$8042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes14c1,213$165 inLost-$165.2835631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c1,000$86 inLost-$85.651,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes6c1,000$64 inLost-$6415232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes13c984.84$130 inLost-$13034234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c529.2$23 inLost-$23.424625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bd0…c562backed Yes5c500$25 inLost-$252839.3%11 W · 17 L+4.3wins+0.15per pick24cpaid+121.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes5c436.48$22 inLost-$22.336526.2%17 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf296…84f6backed Yes12c412.77$48 inLost-$48.32920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick30cpaid+5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x272c…7f07backed Yes5c400$20 inLost-$209524.2%23 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db3…1d38backed Yes7c400$29 inLost-$29.383030%9 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes13c371.67$49 inLost-$48.6916246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes13c331$43 inLost-$43.4744224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes4c327.12$13 inLost-$13.075646.4%26 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed Yes5c324.65$17 inLost-$16.884537.8%17 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes6c320$19 inLost-$18.737136.6%26 W · 45 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+43.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes7c313.11$20 inLost-$20.542311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf847…ee6abacked Yes11c300.9$32 inLost-$32.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60dc…9057backed Yes7c300$21 inLost-$212755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9779…c429backed Yes7c215.97$14 inLost-$14.12450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+197.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes5c200$10 inLost-$101717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid+53.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed Yes6c200$12 inLost-$127038.6%27 W · 43 L-10.3wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-31%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x058f…4883backed No80c93.18$74 inWon+$18.713351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed Yes14c76.06$11 inLost-$10.514715%22 W · 125 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.