Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d0b91e83aaf455faf2c08b91df859e04e7f67e42dacaaa4f27167f78da3ef0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 16c | 3,086$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.19 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 16c | 1,651$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.16 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 11c | 1,309$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.43 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked No | 44c | 1,294$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.71 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeffe…5efabacked Yes | 59c | 1,251$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.44 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 73c | 951.9$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.9 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…5d80backed No | 23c | 871.12$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.27 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…d8d6backed Yes | 30c | 700$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 20c | 685.06$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.55 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 643.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…99c7backed Yes | 61c | 570.98$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 26c | 557.62$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.15 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 7c | 455.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 59c | 443.34$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.4 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 64c | 394.53$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.65 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 18c | 392.18$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.92 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…72eebacked Yes | 65c | 308.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 8c | 299.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 51c | 296.57$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.57 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 27c | 296.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.29 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked Yes | 19c | 277.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 30c | 209.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.78 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 18c | 189.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…2641backed Yes | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 11c | 169.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed Yes | 74c | 162.21$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x975e…7292backed Yes | 30c | 160$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 56c | 152.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 43c | 120$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2c…dce3backed No | 34c | 114.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 49c | 101.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed No | 32c | 89.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +13.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 74c | 84.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…37c9backed Yes | 79c | 80.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 38c | 79.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 76.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1c…01ffbacked Yes | 80c | 62.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +175.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0994…babebacked Yes | 44c | 56.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…8eb7backed No | 65c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…6984backed No | 32c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +211.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…488dbacked Yes | 59c | 33.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked Yes | 50c | 33.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f0…0451backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed Yes | 49c | 22.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf45f…dbfdbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Yes | 64c | 18.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 10?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 16?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 20?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 21?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 23?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 24?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 28?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 29?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 2?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 30?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 31?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 4?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 5?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.