TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 16?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,743
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,288

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,743 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd426…334abacked Yes1c2,000$24 inLost-$2436227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3517…dab5backed Yes2c1,200$24 inLost-$246725.4%17 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes12c1,033$123 inLost-$123.2944224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes14c958.13$134 inLost-$134.1414228.2%40 W · 102 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes7c832$59 inLost-$58.8731241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes4c782.13$28 inLost-$27.6433741.2%139 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes3c700$18 inLost-$18.212328.5%35 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes4c553.63$20 inLost-$20.272540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-21.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes2c499.82$12 inLost-$1224712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes10c442$44 inLost-$44.212432.3%40 W · 84 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes11c374.74$39 inLost-$39.4430635.9%110 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes7c351.59$26 inLost-$26.0538237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes4c340.95$14 inLost-$13.644769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes8c251.02$20 inLost-$20.1415347.1%72 W · 81 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes32c251$80 inLost-$80.1212341.5%51 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes22c229.29$50 inLost-$5013246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No68c206$140 inWon+$65.9218135.9%65 W · 116 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…33c0backed Yes43c200$86 inLost-$868829.5%26 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ae…8eb7backed No66c189$126 inWon+$63.392653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+100.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes20c152.03$30 inLost-$29.8333337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No75c134.65$101 inWon+$33.6622262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes11c107.52$12 inLost-$12.015442.6%23 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes12c99.99$12 inLost-$12.329653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5cd…6055backed Yes25c61.11$15 inLost-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1790…6fd2backed No73c60$44 inWon+$16.251729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7690…c04fbacked Yes27c55.32$15 inLost-$153540%14 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0787…0ca3backed No49c52.5$26 inWon+$26.789054.4%49 W · 41 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+32.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4821…6ab1backed Yes25c40$10 inLost-$102638.5%10 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No75c33.71$25 inWon+$8.529981.8%81 W · 18 L+9.7wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+13.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3082…9446backed No72c13.98$10 inWon+$3.914755.3%26 W · 21 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.