Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14362b4e5faaccb203b2c3a30a4f325b62acf7d12918af3530204c3442bafcab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d99…4ca3backed Yes | 19c | 6,160$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.59 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 5c | 4,978$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.77 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,714$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 17c | 2,499$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.44 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 2,188$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 1,571$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,375$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes | 3c | 1,372$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 1,331$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,322$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,258$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.71 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,205$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92da…9665backed Yes | 12c | 1,058$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa837…34eabacked Yes | 5c | 553.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +824.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 494.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…0f3cbacked Yes | 5c | 487.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 21cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 405$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 9c | 353.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 7c | 350.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 3c | 350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 4c | 299.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 4c | 293.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 5c | 216.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 10c | 205.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes | 10c | 139.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…6055backed Yes | 21c | 47.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 21.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked No | 78c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 13.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 10?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 16?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 20?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 21?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 23?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 24?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 28?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 29?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 2?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 30?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 31?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 4?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 5?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.