TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,230
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,258

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,230 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c66…44f3backed Yes13c9,004$1,207 inLost-$1,206.833531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes14c6,102$873 inLost-$872.635631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes6c4,774$277 inLost-$276.9764339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c2,562$191 inLost-$191.411,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes7c2,000$130 inLost-$13042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes6c1,810$110 inLost-$109.513738%52 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes13c1,754$222 inLost-$222.0835921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf96…9942backed Yes7c1,666$124 inLost-$124.492729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-50.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed Yes7c1,300$85 inLost-$84.52611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes7c1,213$87 inLost-$86.7911436%41 W · 73 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes5c1,179$62 inLost-$62.286526.2%17 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes9c1,111$97 inLost-$96.5344224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes17c891.61$150 inLost-$15011038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9950…6d78backed Yes14c799.98$108 inLost-$1081926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes2c722.54$15 inLost-$15.3711816.1%19 W · 99 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+56.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c573.28$26 inLost-$26.414625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf296…84f6backed Yes12c552.48$64 inLost-$64.52920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick30cpaid+5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes14c507.69$71 inLost-$71.0816246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5bd0…c562backed Yes5c499.99$25 inLost-$252839.3%11 W · 17 L+4.3wins+0.15per pick24cpaid+121.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes5c499.95$24 inLost-$23.698644.2%38 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf877…c69dbacked Yes5c418.27$20 inLost-$19.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272c…7f07backed Yes5c400$20 inLost-$209524.2%23 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db3…1d38backed Yes3c390.12$13 inLost-$12.93030%9 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes13c353.06$46 inLost-$45.8534234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes6c313.28$20 inLost-$202213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-59.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes10c267.71$27 inLost-$26.8485725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x60dc…9057backed Yes8c260.64$20 inLost-$20.272755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes11c228.94$25 inLost-$25.2315347.1%72 W · 81 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes10c226.91$22 inLost-$22.221540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f4…5f8abacked Yes12c200$24 inLost-$23.6633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes5c199.9$10 inLost-$10.391717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid+53.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed Yes15c135.85$20 inLost-$20.4314715%22 W · 125 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73d7…11b2backed Yes15c124.21$19 inLost-$196535.4%23 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x727e…8b9dbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$103246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93e2…92b9backed Yes15c99.03$15 inLost-$152313%3 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x058f…4883backed No77c93.18$72 inWon+$21.513351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea8…9e5fbacked Yes27c40$11 inLost-$10.8966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No75c24$18 inWon+$5.9532243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b0…a817backed No78c20$16 inWon+$4.42138.1%8 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.