TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 20?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,826
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,363

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,826 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb760…ccd7backed No10c1,196$120 inLost-$119.726936.2%25 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No12c589$68 inLost-$68.4633741.2%139 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No5c580.43$30 inLost-$29.634814.6%7 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc682…17bbbacked No59c500$295 inLost-$2952634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd20b…3a20backed Yes41c500$205 inWon+$2954845.8%22 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+41.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc0b6…3a92backed No13c450.86$59 inLost-$58.577856.4%44 W · 34 L+13.0wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+75.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5144…37c9backed No14c413.47$59 inLost-$59.45244.2%23 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No14c400$56 inLost-$5626429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed No14c387.07$54 inLost-$54.412540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-21.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No15c333.33$50 inLost-$5024149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12c9…5016backed Yes18c200$36 inWon+$1641729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes79c200$158 inWon+$42.213246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes77c191$148 inWon+$43.0121726.7%58 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05df…882dbacked No19c141.13$26 inLost-$26.343748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7db8…ed19backed No15c113$16 inLost-$16.54751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No79c102.02$81 inLost-$80.9922262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc713…f0bcbacked No12c89.85$11 inLost-$10.951442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd81d…531bbacked No48c88.65$42 inLost-$42.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No15c88.12$13 inLost-$12.9426756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f79…5487backed No66c72.5$48 inLost-$48911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-84.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x929a…5ab4backed Yes32c40$13 inWon+$27.26753.7%36 W · 31 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x25a3…3cdfbacked Yes55c27.27$15 inWon+$12.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.