TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,220
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,204

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,220 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes4c4,590$181 inLost-$181.3464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes4c2,940$106 inLost-$106.0614228.2%40 W · 102 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c2,573$58 inLost-$57.925071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes7c1,774$120 inLost-$119.6544224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf96…9942backed Yes6c1,553$100 inLost-$1002729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-50.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd989…0087backed Yes3c1,152$30 inLost-$30450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03a4…3e32backed Yes5c832.06$44 inLost-$44.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x708d…ea78backed Yes5c627$29 inLost-$29.218144.4%36 W · 45 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes4c599.85$27 inLost-$26.591717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid+53.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes6c569.66$36 inLost-$36.4917737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes7c441.62$29 inLost-$29.321039.7%10 W · 93 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes4c441.55$17 inLost-$17.487136.6%26 W · 45 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+43.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c382.64$21 inLost-$211,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes3c335.41$11 inLost-$10.914221.4%9 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c326.09$15 inLost-$15.244625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes10c224.99$22 inLost-$22.516246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes7c200$13 inLost-$13.366526.2%17 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.