TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,730
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,250

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,730 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa65c…7997backed Yes73c6,604$4,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,793.274450%22 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd20b…3a20backed Yes57c5,113$2,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,938.784845.8%22 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+41.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No23c2,275$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,748.3742329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked No27c2,042$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.075466.7%36 W · 18 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fb1…acc2backed Yes25c1,419$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.91666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+93.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes2c1,400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2822227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf63a…5d80backed No70c1,169$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.421735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes31c1,156$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.7221726.7%58 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed Yes57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5709749.5%48 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes8c953.39$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4144224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f3f…5095backed No46c924.16$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+116.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39bc…8230backed Yes15c864.12$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes42c724.72$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.0628438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes3c650.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.32283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes4c511.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.084769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed No75c472.64$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.456936.2%25 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No27c459.4$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.3629653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1a4…527cbacked Yes3c450.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.835837.9%22 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes48c418.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20034440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes21c377.45$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.54254%1 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.24per pick28cpaid-83.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9e1c…e801backed No59c373.65$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.652744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+28.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeffe…5efabacked No49c306.03$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.032958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013829%40 W · 98 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+7.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes11c287.56$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9312341.5%51 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes12c269.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2215347.1%72 W · 81 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0db…b117backed No80c250$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No45c221.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.44860.4%29 W · 19 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+42.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes56c218.93$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8828943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa837…34eabacked Yes35c218.01$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.04540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+824.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…9411backed Yes79c211.84$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.432552%13 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc435…2494backed Yes73c194.2$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.57821.8%17 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes11c189.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3733741.2%139 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x983d…becfbacked No71c169.62$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.621070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes39c167.91$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7310513.3%14 W · 91 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes31c150$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.97136.6%26 W · 45 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+43.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes51c147.13$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.855152.9%27 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb70…01c0backed No50c140$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703060%18 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+82%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed No54c137.18$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.791090%9 W · 1 L+6.4wins+0.64per pick26cpaid+313.9%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x708d…ea78backed Yes30c131$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.278144.4%36 W · 45 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f55…92c3backed No69c128.21$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…821fbacked Yes46c122.01$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.73740.5%15 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02b1…fb65backed Yes16c121.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes11c120$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.630635.9%110 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes57c112.11$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.047268.1%49 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+9.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes20c112$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes41c111.01$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9213441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac71…f74cbacked No56c110$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9db3…1d38backed Yes41c106.57$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.433030%9 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No45c102.47$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3621631.9%69 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5660…0593backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6233337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb52…b81abacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes32c96.56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.712240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ab…8253backed No60c96.44$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.741850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85e7…5e49backed Yes49c96$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.911442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No17c90.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8258927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No44c89.4$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4112325.2%31 W · 92 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+1.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x11f8…e629backed Yes47c85.79$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.64812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-78.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed Yes35c82.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8426756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes16c79.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ee…4b33backed No69c79.52$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.562450%12 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes56c79.06$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1920823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No50c74.65$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4685725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No52c64.49$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.966872.1%49 W · 19 L+10.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+24.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x92a7…eb78backed No37c63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.71154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+81.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb731…5797backed No44c62.95$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.094761.7%29 W · 18 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+44.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes46c62.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9434432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb7a1…4be5backed No46c62.08$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.632100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No79c61.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.059981.8%81 W · 18 L+9.7wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+13.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2330…ed99backed No45c60.79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.171163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+119.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes29c57.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.596944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked Yes70c54.39$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2916650%83 W · 83 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc972…dcd9backed Yes50c49.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.833438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked Yes40c49.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208833%29 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x929a…5ab4backed No57c45.13$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.616753.7%36 W · 31 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6332…1b7abacked Yes67c44.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x791d…d914backed Yes56c44.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.841030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No48c44.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0442311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de0…7f22backed Yes49c40.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-77.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4821…6ab1backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.042638.5%10 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2ca…4419backed No79c38.09$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.08475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5011…6237backed No44c25.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.12825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-50.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1620…227bbacked No59c20.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.382166.7%14 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ab…0a76backed Yes64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.