Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9698ded51e60f77f822f17fa4fb96539bc1ac7190d4f25b196b39a7b55e35eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb084…b64fbacked No | 8c | 2,483$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…bb6ebacked No | 3c | 1,687$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 76c | 1,500$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 1,150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6aae…5d7abacked No | 4c | 1,069$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…3f18backed No | 3c | 1,014$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 75c | 777.53$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.97 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 2c | 743.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 14c | 603.93$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.88 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed7…a702backed No | 4c | 530.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 65c | 517.56$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.35 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…37b7backed No | 4c | 499.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…a59dbacked No | 4c | 465.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked No | 37c | 454.66$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.73 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4e…9e0bbacked No | 2c | 453.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 4c | 441.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed Yes | 14c | 431.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.36 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 76c | 393.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 23c | 390$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 5c | 350$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked No | 40c | 344.5$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 40c | 325.52$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.65 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 17c | 288.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.98 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 287.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 76c | 278.57$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked No | 29c | 270$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed Yes | 72c | 239$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…be57backed No | 4c | 232.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 56c | 198.16$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.65 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4907…9202backed Yes | 44c | 179.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…38fabacked Yes | 44c | 169.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 76c | 132.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 17c | 129$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 78c | 127.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf932…00a1backed Yes | 28c | 125.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed Yes | 44c | 125.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 20c | 115.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 28c | 111.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 44c | 107$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a86…f8e8backed Yes | 16c | 104.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed No | 31c | 103.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed No | 56c | 103.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +326.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x442c…3db8backed No | 10c | 98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc697…412bbacked Yes | 42c | 97.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7d…058fbacked No | 13c | 94.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 44c | 91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 54c | 83.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd20a…098dbacked Yes | 19c | 79.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +414.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 29c | 78.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…ce51backed No | 38c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 19c | 57.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…37e9backed Yes | 24c | 52.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +312.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0111…6ac0backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…f53cbacked Yes | 23c | 48.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +160.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 80c | 39.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed Yes | 43c | 28.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da9…ec6fbacked Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 56c | 21.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 79c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…5cf7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by December 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by January 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.