Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3397c7832b5e777f01db851c1450e6f875da101048c4070ff519b616a4db4ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 11c | 2,259$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.85 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 17c | 1,938$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.91 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,482$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,426$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 6c | 1,303$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 10c | 1,275$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 10c | 1,200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 80c | 1,164$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.39 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 13c | 1,133$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…7884backed Yes | 20c | 1,024$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…26fdbacked Yes | 14c | 960$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes | 14c | 903$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 14c | 690.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 14c | 671.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed Yes | 14c | 586$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39d…b97fbacked Yes | 14c | 560.75$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…2dd7backed Yes | 23c | 507.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e07…e66fbacked Yes | 18c | 413.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 19c | 300$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0de5…d01cbacked Yes | 14c | 297$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…a8c5backed Yes | 14c | 289$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes | 11c | 256.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 14c | 216.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes | 19c | 214.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…5d80backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 17c | 180.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf850…9163backed Yes | 19c | 180$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cd…5285backed Yes | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365c…c731backed Yes | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 11c | 166.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…74dabacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…2f6ebacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 80c | 143.13$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 13c | 89.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…3307backed Yes | 15c | 82.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 80c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by January 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by December 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by May 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.