Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe271ffb9e706a4e589437ffda8dd59b5ed53d98a31e5203698aa62c83b999e0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 77c | 3,729$2,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7816…ba38backed Yes | 16c | 3,393$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 23c | 2,433$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.59 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,199$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 17c | 1,716$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.36 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…d080backed Yes | 4c | 1,286$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,217$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.96 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 34cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +394.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 16c | 999.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b09…3d56backed Yes | 5c | 897$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…6cc0backed Yes | 5c | 896.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183c…95d2backed Yes | 5c | 888$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7394…13bdbacked Yes | 5c | 888$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 9c | 639.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 10c | 570.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…972cbacked Yes | 17c | 533.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 28c | 350$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 17c | 342.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 284.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 229.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0712…c38abacked Yes | 11c | 224$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 16c | 178.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 79c | 147.25$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed No | 76c | 141$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed Yes | 10c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe0…48e5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0b…e9d9backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…4739backed Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a6…24b8backed Yes | 18c | 72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b4…946dbacked Yes | 18c | 67.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3512…c2babacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…d842backed No | 72c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…5293backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 78c | 30.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9b…1b20backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by December 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by January 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by May 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.