MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x559cf73d1e02060ac8774e2f50c375b6e08727a825c5480f1e6408b78efedbb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 42c | 8,082$3,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,655.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 44c | 6,948$3,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,921.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 6,925$3,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,903.15 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 6,500$3,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,705 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…709abacked New York Mets | 43c | 6,402$2,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,649.07 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 3,684$2,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.47 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 2,622$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.64 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets | 44c | 2,219$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 8c | 1,867$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 1,763$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.76 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 1,363$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.04 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 453.76$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.23 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed New York Mets | 41c | 205.71$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.59 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 196.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed New York Mets | 44c | 195$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed New York Mets | 45c | 175$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.95 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 174.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 171$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed New York Mets | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 105.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 103.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked New York Mets | 44c | 102.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.41 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed New York Mets | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 94.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked New York Mets | 44c | 88.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 77.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Mets | 41c | 74.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 54.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…82b5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed New York Mets | 47c | 51.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed New York Mets | 44c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed New York Mets | 44c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…e292backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 47.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 37.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x176a…4ac5backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 32.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 32.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed New York Mets | 45c | 31.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed New York Mets | 51c | 30.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.