MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13289c95a7e430a9fda30b16015823a0db41b06e1849bf2d6e8b31345e666440
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 59c | 15,607$9,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,410.09 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 42c | 8,033$3,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,372.28 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 7,555$3,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,166.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 7,040$3,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,187.31 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 47c | 5,243$2,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,464.2 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 2,227$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 1,186$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 54c | 869.33$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.89 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 39c | 792.5$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.12 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 46c | 518.84$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.69 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Over | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 46c | 458.58$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.95 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Over | 57c | 352.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.63 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked Under | 14c | 351.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 54c | 326.07$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 38c | 295.42$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.16 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 288$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Under | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Over | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 219.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 46c | 201.3$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00c…efc3backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 55c | 163$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 49c | 148.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 130.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…d2bdbacked Over | 56c | 121.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 56c | 111.29$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7e…363cbacked Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 70c | 106.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…07a6backed Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 45c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…cb64backed Over | 56c | 85.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 26c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 72.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 67.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 29c | 66.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Over | 55c | 65.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 45c | 60.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 50.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 56c | 50.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 54c | 46.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 56c | 35.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…6659backed Over | 55c | 34.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Over | 39c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd3…1e24backed Under | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -6.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked Over | 54c | 28.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Over | 54c | 27.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f4…918fbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b67…5347backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 71c | 17.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.