Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x362a16591b7a32e563753700d2a6404f80c382b1538d411239970abb3549753a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $185,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a81…d324backed No | 34c | 14,065$4,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,782.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 54c | 12,589$6,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,755.76 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 73c | 12,043$8,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,203.79 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 17c | 12,000$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…5543backed No | 9c | 10,918$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…61f2backed No | 10c | 10,050$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…52e3backed No | 9c | 6,682$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8c…671cbacked No | 2c | 5,070$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf792…f205backed No | 56c | 4,705$2,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,616.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 14c | 4,163$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.79 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc21…7125backed No | 8c | 3,783$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 14c | 3,486$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.52 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30be…4e33backed No | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed No | 37c | 2,879$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66de…46d9backed No | 7c | 2,801$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 32c | 2,733$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.95 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 57c | 2,462$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.76 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 47c | 2,028$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.48 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 78c | 1,856$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.3 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 17c | 1,788$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 50c | 1,707$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…3af9backed No | 10c | 1,704$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.09 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 52c | 1,574$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.46 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 61c | 1,503$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.18 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…2cb2backed No | 7c | 1,466$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4399…9a85backed No | 21c | 1,362$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 7c | 1,274$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 72c | 1,262$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.1 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…819bbacked No | 11c | 1,166$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 56c | 1,093$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.41 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 22c | 1,074$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.98 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 36c | 993.95$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.04 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…d3fdbacked No | 9c | 988.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…3262backed No | 11c | 946.56$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda50…eb14backed No | 13c | 941.23$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…4f14backed No | 8c | 902.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 57c | 862.16$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.76 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…de48backed Yes | 54c | 857.08$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2503…9be5backed No | 8c | 833.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018c…9794backed No | 48c | 827.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed Yes | 66c | 625$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.64 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed No | 19c | 615.1$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff2…7b6bbacked No | 9c | 611.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0afc…a294backed No | 9c | 546.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea2…8bf1backed No | 14c | 533.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed Yes | 55c | 472.87$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.78 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 50c | 437.86$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.91 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 46c | 434.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 12c | 415$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…40e4backed No | 13c | 380.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 7c | 353.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…502ebacked No | 20c | 333.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 54c | 330.27$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.94 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 36c | 306.33$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked No | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…1079backed No | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked No | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 29c | 291.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 62c | 283.8$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.1 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9094…9e14backed No | 8c | 275$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f4…5edfbacked No | 11c | 260.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 33c | 253.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +400%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c1…26a6backed No | 33c | 240.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 76c | 234.67$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…3223backed Yes | 68c | 222.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…263dbacked No | 12c | 217.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…2f1ebacked No | 47c | 210.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 210.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…36d1backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed Yes | 17c | 199.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +313.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 17c | 179.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…2773backed No | 11c | 176.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed No | 47c | 171.49$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9b…086dbacked No | 23c | 171.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +374.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5caa…ec5cbacked Yes | 59c | 170.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +72%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 169.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…59abbacked No | 78c | 167.25$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde41…5732backed No | 15c | 166.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf190…5aadbacked No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…dcadbacked No | 23c | 160.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe494…96d6backed No | 13c | 158.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32aa…6694backed No | 34c | 146.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1777…4e65backed No | 7c | 140.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…5efcbacked No | 53c | 139.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 51c | 137.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 8c | 131.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 73c | 131$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x130e…cc45backed Yes | 17c | 127.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…c786backed No | 9c | 125.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…8a13backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…a931backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5764…dfd8backed No | 10c | 123.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…e7dcbacked No | 16c | 123.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.