MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbf583bac9b3c034e31792f81de547b619fd75f57676a7ea734722c8d58c8128
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 57c | 15,000$8,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,549.93 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 48c | 9,251$4,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,483.74 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 4,081$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,354.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 3,982$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,221.86 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 3,748$2,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 3,508$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,809.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 59c | 3,025$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.53 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 76c | 2,620$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.36 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 1,692$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.84 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Under | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.1 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 38c | 1,326$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.93 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 63c | 1,290$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.37 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Over | 23c | 1,157$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.13 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 1,058$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.29 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 41c | 754.32$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 68c | 728$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.47 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 24c | 590.23$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 75c | 520.15$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Over | 45c | 489.11$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.05 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 24c | 399$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 35c | 304.25$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.76 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e9…e2dfbacked Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…7c8fbacked Under | 43c | 251.37$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.28 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 24c | 243.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…e934backed Under | 73c | 225.28$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 43c | 194.22$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.9 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 35c | 178.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.81 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed Under | 43c | 174.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…2a39backed Over | 41c | 171.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 42c | 148.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 141.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 46c | 135.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6075…2f82backed Under | 54c | 132.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 48c | 126.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Under | 46c | 106.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 44c | 98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 45c | 93.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 57c | 82.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…6e53backed Under | 50c | 76.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 45c | 73.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 55c | 70.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 25c | 68.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4270…6168backed Under | 45c | 65.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Under | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbf…d227backed Under | 41c | 62.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…065dbacked Under | 37c | 57.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 66c | 53.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 60c | 40.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Over | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Under | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 40c | 37.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 40c | 36.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 50c | 32.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…bd31backed Under | 39c | 31.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 40c | 29.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 50c | 29.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…3b6cbacked Over | 54c | 26.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x773e…7502backed Over | 53c | 26.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 76c | 25.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Under | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 46c | 22.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Under | 48c | 20.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red SoxTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.