MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x187627ab902047ff1abb884bf61afc7b0a3f3e96d6e48a73f62c59de75e67531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 4,274$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,315.47 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 2,606$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 2,206$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…5d07backed Under | 58c | 2,100$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 46c | 1,993$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.6 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 65c | 1,624$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.94 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 59c | 1,472$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.96 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 1,407$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 40c | 1,117$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.41 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 51c | 987.12$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.69 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 41c | 680.14$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.38 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 68c | 619.5$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.95 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 51c | 538.66$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.35 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 61c | 452.71$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.09 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Over | 51c | 311.59$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.17 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 41c | 256.56$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.45 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 52c | 220.72$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…37dbbacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 36c | 169.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 69c | 166.02$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.56 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 45c | 151.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 58c | 147$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 131.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 47c | 125.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 65c | 117.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 57c | 112.72$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…af4fbacked Under | 45c | 106.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 47c | 84.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 37c | 81.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 55c | 81.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 38c | 76.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 66c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 23c | 54.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 32c | 49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 35c | 44.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 54c | 40.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 51c | 38.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 77c | 30.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…3b6cbacked Over | 62c | 29.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Under | 44c | 28.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 49c | 26.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 60c | 25.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 47c | 25.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 65c | 23.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 67c | 22.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 53c | 20.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 55c | 18.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 67c | 17.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red SoxTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.