MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35b79d2f7d8d9f692060b87fd56912a25c7c3c1d75e54c5c1bb2c2129bbac435
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 2,136$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 35c | 1,671$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.07 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 65c | 1,468$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.57 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 69c | 454.83$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 59c | 420.08$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.23 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 74c | 354.04$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 64c | 341.55$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.83 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 59c | 335.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.76 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Over | 58c | 306.33$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.66 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 32c | 276.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 63c | 266.39$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.26 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 59c | 257.86$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.72 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 41c | 251.95$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 64c | 118$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 64c | 118$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 28c | 110.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 60c | 80.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 59c | 74.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 40c | 74.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Over | 59c | 66.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 68c | 54.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed Over | 70c | 53.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…28f3backed Over | 57c | 50.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 41c | 45.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f6…f7e6backed Over | 70c | 44.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…8883backed Over | 70c | 44.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Under | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9632…a379backed Over | 71c | 30.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 40c | 28.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 20.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…866ebacked Over | 70c | 15.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red SoxTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.