MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x956d5c1b6116fb79660c2fb4556cfe145e2e8554b284d007fb18ac1af7f989db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Texas Rangers | 65c | 25,592$16,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,841.9 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 10,377$3,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,462.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 33c | 8,063$2,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,668.4 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 2,721$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 2,558$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.3 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 1,673$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 1,329$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.76 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Texas Rangers | 65c | 1,013$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.44 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 546$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 420$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 16c | 355.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 334.26$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Texas Rangers | 72c | 312$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 289.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 248.57$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 234.18$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 200.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 194.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 168.83$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 151.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 121$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 106$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f7…a9a9backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 95.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Rangers | 79c | 93.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Boston Red Sox | 16c | 93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Boston Red Sox | 16c | 88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 59.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Boston Red Sox | 27c | 53.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Texas Rangers | 65c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 46.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Texas Rangers | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 35.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 34.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…a0a5backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 33.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 30.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Texas Rangers | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Texas Rangers | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red SoxTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.