Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e5e75020985b5f6a5c20f189c250cff89c68ac46829d27c467583f0e27d3e6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xceb2…2f98backed Yes | 68c | 11,397$7,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,620.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 56c | 3,390$1,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.78 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 10c | 3,018$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.55 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 45c | 2,959$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 63c | 2,881$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.04 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 2,876$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 55c | 2,625$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.23 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 32c | 2,425$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.44 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed No | 8c | 2,414$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Yes | 56c | 2,094$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 1,798$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.24 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 63c | 1,755$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.22 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffc…9529backed No | 42c | 1,753$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…39b2backed No | 2c | 1,714$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 48c | 1,669$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.46 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…4408backed No | 42c | 1,550$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 44c | 1,508$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.13 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 20c | 1,500$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.96 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 34c | 1,466$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.39 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…419cbacked No | 30c | 1,464$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…e6a5backed No | 49c | 1,379$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabca…073bbacked No | 54c | 1,323$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…ef71backed No | 1c | 996.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…ed25backed Yes | 60c | 965.86$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.06 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked Yes | 71c | 936.1$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.72 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 37c | 913.08$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 41c | 910.76$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.35 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 29c | 873.25$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.77 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ba…4cedbacked No | 48c | 827.8$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 33c | 814.81$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.22 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…be17backed No | 52c | 806.14$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 11c | 774.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…cb34backed Yes | 43c | 766.16$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.66 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 45c | 702.89$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.61 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 25c | 701$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 685$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked No | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87f…9c0cbacked No | 35c | 658.04$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…be21backed Yes | 29c | 639.3$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +162%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6538…9392backed No | 20c | 631.78$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…8380backed No | 80c | 627.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 28c | 599.59$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.38 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0639…75c6backed Yes | 48c | 590.89$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 42c | 575.77$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.11 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d95…ed84backed No | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 36c | 539.61$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.57 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed Yes | 65c | 525.34$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.55 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…a623backed No | 39c | 506.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed No | 36c | 505.84$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.66 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6b…1ab6backed No | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…f829backed Yes | 52c | 480.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.69 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.33per pick | 49cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 41c | 449.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.86 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed No | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 55c | 432.06$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.4 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…c177backed Yes | 35c | 408.83$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6795…c55dbacked No | 75c | 408.68$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…80f6backed No | 52c | 386.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 62c | 370.55$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.96 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4153…c423backed No | 54c | 367$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed No | 24c | 358$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 32c | 356.45$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.78 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Yes | 57c | 352$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed Yes | 75c | 333.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…0424backed Yes | 79c | 331.77$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 33c | 323$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.41 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 35c | 319.52$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.84 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 63c | 319.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 59c | 298.57$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.95 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 19c | 298.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 25c | 269.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked Yes | 73c | 263.89$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…7761backed Yes | 39c | 255.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe26…23d1backed Yes | 73c | 249.48$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c83…a0a0backed No | 37c | 243.04$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed No | 33c | 243$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 49c | 240.11$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.55 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48ef…c913backed No | 42c | 238.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf932…00a1backed No | 39c | 223.11$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 17c | 216.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8e…5b53backed Yes | 38c | 211.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…f676backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…5138backed Yes | 69c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…f7ddbacked No | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 59c | 195$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 58c | 194.04$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed No | 26c | 193.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 55c | 182.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…25f8backed No | 40c | 178.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 29c | 168$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.28 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 53c | 162.3$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd82…8f2abacked No | 43c | 160$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…679ebacked No | 41c | 159.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed No | 48c | 156.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0757…58b3backed No | 29c | 155.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2b…e55dbacked No | 8c | 154.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd67…77b2backed No | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab79…f2edbacked Yes | 36c | 152.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.17 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 71c | 149.07$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Vasylivka by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.