TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$117,659
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,830

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,659 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xceb2…2f98backed Yes68c11,397$7,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,620.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed Yes56c3,390$1,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.788055%44 W · 36 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No10c3,018$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.553831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No45c2,959$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3266654.5%36 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes63c2,881$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.046437.5%24 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No2c2,876$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.27440%0 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes55c2,625$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.231770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5d7…4952backed No32c2,425$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.441631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-50.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54c6…e5c2backed No8c2,414$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.1550%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Yes56c2,094$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.35425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes64c1,798$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.2430837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc984…37cabacked No63c1,755$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.222133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ffc…9529backed No42c1,753$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27e9…39b2backed No2c1,714$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No48c1,669$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.466640.9%27 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce6…4408backed No42c1,550$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked No44c1,508$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.137462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No20c1,500$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.961024.9%5 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-91.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed No34c1,466$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.39128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-71.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d57…419cbacked No30c1,464$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc932…e6a5backed No49c1,379$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6801060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabca…073bbacked No54c1,323$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71440%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe72c…ef71backed No1c996.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d1…ed25backed Yes60c965.86$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.062060%12 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d8c…b79abacked Yes71c936.1$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.723658.3%21 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked No37c913.08$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.84633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes41c910.76$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.352352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No29c873.25$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.7735341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4ba…4cedbacked No48c827.8$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-56.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No33c814.81$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.2215125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0daf…be17backed No52c806.14$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-70.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked No11c774.78$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.23944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7216…cb34backed Yes43c766.16$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.663636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+38.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed Yes45c702.89$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.617848.7%38 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed No25c701$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c685$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7631.6%1 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked No44c681.82$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc87f…9c0cbacked No35c658.04$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.32757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec4d…be21backed Yes29c639.3$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.91580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+162%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6538…9392backed No20c631.78$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.93616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d3…8380backed No80c627.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No28c599.59$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.386225.8%16 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0639…75c6backed Yes48c590.89$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.991070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+40.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No42c575.77$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.1115855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d95…ed84backed No27c555.56$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No36c539.61$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.577518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f4f…7039backed Yes65c525.34$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.554057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb94a…a623backed No39c506.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf81a…eba3backed No36c505.84$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.661560%9 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+79.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6f6b…1ab6backed No45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3ce…f829backed Yes52c480.6$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.691782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.7wins+0.33per pick49cpaid+124.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x90b7…0b0dbacked No41c449.99$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.867638.2%29 W · 47 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b62…5203backed No45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+16.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes55c432.06$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.46126.2%16 W · 45 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x714d…c177backed Yes35c408.83$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+50.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6795…c55dbacked No75c408.68$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.51757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x703d…80f6backed No52c386.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.992934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.9wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes62c370.55$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.9624258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4153…c423backed No54c367$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1431…a949backed No24c358$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.783680.6%29 W · 7 L+10.1wins+0.28per pick53cpaid+55.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No32c356.45$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.781533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Yes57c352$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.36450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b49…2e46backed Yes75c333.33$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e49…0424backed Yes79c331.77$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes33c323$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.413221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No35c319.52$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.847735.1%27 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed No63c319.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1232025%5 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked Yes59c298.57$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.9511645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No19c298.18$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.67156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-57.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No25c269.98$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.34452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…ea5cbacked Yes73c263.89$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.851428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-51.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x761b…7761backed Yes39c255.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+155.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe26…23d1backed Yes73c249.48$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.48450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c83…a0a0backed No37c243.04$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca08…1267backed No33c243$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.134330.2%13 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes49c240.11$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.553351.5%17 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+45.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x48ef…c913backed No42c238.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf932…00a1backed No39c223.11$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No17c216.43$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.34346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2e8e…5b53backed Yes38c211.59$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.18633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+95.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa561…f676backed No39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb082…5138backed Yes69c200$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4d…f7ddbacked No39c200$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes59c195$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.951050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes58c194.04$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5612225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ab4…e073backed No26c193.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506752.2%35 W · 32 L+7.1wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+61.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf5bb…bdb8backed No55c182.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75a7…25f8backed No40c178.48$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes29c168$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.285337.7%20 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No53c162.3$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.269341.9%39 W · 54 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd82…8f2abacked No43c160$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…679ebacked No41c159.67$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651560%9 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5587…5737backed No48c156.29$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0757…58b3backed No29c155.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c2b…e55dbacked No8c154.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.33425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-68.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd67…77b2backed No26c153.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab79…f2edbacked Yes36c152.91$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.171850%9 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes71c149.07$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8314355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.