TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,667

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,031 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5a3…883abacked No53c2,375$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.017462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No50c2,187$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.91957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No54c2,000$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.997548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d5c…55dfbacked No60c1,990$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.373560%21 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed Yes42c1,953$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.487848.7%38 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Yes39c1,430$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef73…c3c7backed Yes41c1,222$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes52c1,208$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.514750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No67c951.49$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.7926835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes34c895.1$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.895337.7%20 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc83f…b7a9backed No76c807.43$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes36c800.73$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.096437.5%24 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda92…5a25backed No62c800.71$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f90…517dbacked No79c800$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.62425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No64c757.83$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.836654.5%36 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes35c741.11$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.9535341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4c1…7324backed Yes45c736.48$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.854942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0daf…be17backed No69c727.88$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.88520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-70.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No59c715.31$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.319962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7216…cb34backed Yes39c666.67$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2603636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+38.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked Yes44c582.27$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.73237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x802d…2482backed Yes64c561.63$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes25c546.02$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1114355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes44c536.99$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.27875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes50c529.27$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.1311839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b4e…93a3backed Yes11c521.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.411250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No52c429$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.6815855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed No67c422.22$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.043560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes35c400$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.723818.4%7 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes49c399.99$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1962138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc327…a208backed No50c376.95$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes38c367$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee25…7cd3backed No63c366.49$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.014131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes44c354.98$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.12520%5 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes24c344.73$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.855327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x334b…d440backed No65c323.09$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.09475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4153…c423backed No58c313.14$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.14742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes52c312$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2430%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbefe…2d45backed No70c312$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35dd…75f3backed No59c262.53$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.53475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+117%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Yes43c262$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecd3…8289backed No77c258.24$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb34b…5d0ebacked No60c255.87$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.491136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd222…fe42backed No60c249.17$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.67977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+62.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea0d…5057backed No42c240$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.21421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-51.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked Yes39c224.64$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7511645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd2e…0873backed Yes46c207.34$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.09520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-73.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd175…bb3abacked No74c202.04$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf54…d6d9backed No50c200.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.15742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922825%7 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-44.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No61c189.84$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.511957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No43c187.26$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.673729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa70b…5bd1backed No55c183.27$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.472100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed No68c162.34$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcdc…fcc7backed No52c162.14$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6909…628cbacked No71c159.15$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b22…3a92backed Yes41c158.11$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.166944.9%31 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd82…8f2abacked No70c157$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.841250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No50c151.94$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.971250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes22c151.87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5441736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes38c147.21$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4912225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x703d…80f6backed No55c144.26$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.312934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.9wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes42c144$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda57…e628backed No63c140.91$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8234…bfd0backed No61c125.04$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.97450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29ce…e196backed No45c123.24$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef95…88c0backed Yes41c121.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No55c120.38$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8213128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa032…679ebacked No72c113.18$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.751560%9 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf853…21d0backed No71c112$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.482661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes32c110.64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.017518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes51c109.9$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2411840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x100f…5157backed Yes47c105.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-81.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49a9…82b9backed No52c103.14$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes35c101.01$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.43351.5%17 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+45.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.037656.6%43 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff73…a11dbacked No53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1bf…e2f7backed No58c99.14$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes40c98.19$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9130837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc109…450bbacked Yes37c97.31$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.266136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No34c96.94$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.896225.8%16 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0afc…a294backed No66c82.82$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.821145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+100.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No60c81$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.133246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289341.9%39 W · 54 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a96…b382backed Yes37c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.681163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+38.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8859…22c0backed No75c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca1…d96bbacked No75c79.56$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.56560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b2…da22backed Yes33c79.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.432254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes35c76.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.926126.2%16 W · 45 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6bc…42c1backed Yes41c73.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-43.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ea9…1651backed No71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.42633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1f7…ebccbacked No49c70.18$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.792433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5bb…bdb8backed No60c67.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.246142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7930…b208backed No38c65.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.791361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.28per pick33cpaid+59.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x370c…3eb1backed No60c64.27$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.452055%11 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf382…be0ebacked Yes46c63.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b51…da79backed No68c63.39$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.284235.7%15 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes37c63.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3429416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x1536…7f40backed Yes40c63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02f7…dd8fbacked No68c61.61$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.72666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.