Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc95f249a83384deeededf7e6fb0742d23237cf3dfb1883fd3eec69c45ce80a0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd116…be32backed No | 48c | 4,258$2,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,206.02 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 53c | 3,779$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.54 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…e6a5backed No | 70c | 3,530$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 46c | 2,853$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.19 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 65c | 2,106$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.13 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 17c | 1,038$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 17c | 806.85$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.96 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 45c | 805.22$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.2 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 73c | 800$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.53 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 54c | 753.15$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.6 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 13c | 722$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 68c | 647.54$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.07 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 20c | 587.88$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.73 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 73c | 548.9$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 29c | 535.91$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.95 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 30c | 474.37$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 50c | 462.55$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.59 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 74c | 388.74$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.69 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 46c | 365.21$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.79 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 50c | 363.8$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.24 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 341.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked Yes | 18c | 326.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 72c | 314.52$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No | 35c | 282.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.33 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 39c | 255.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 250.69$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 14c | 233.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 29c | 208.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.28 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 30c | 198.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.99 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 13c | 186.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 20c | 175.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 79c | 175.5$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 54c | 170.37$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 161.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 14c | 144$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 61c | 142.48$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 37c | 139.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 23c | 132.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 48c | 120.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 36c | 115.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 62c | 112.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 43c | 111.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 26c | 108.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ab…6b01backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…2e89backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +193%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 34c | 87.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42fc…4927backed No | 72c | 85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 37c | 84.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78e2…da9dbacked No | 59c | 84.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…f80cbacked Yes | 23c | 82.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 42c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…cdf4backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 44c | 79.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked No | 69c | 74.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…ebccbacked Yes | 16c | 72.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 53c | 70.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5b…4802backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 67.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad3…faa6backed No | 60c | 66.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed No | 79c | 65.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 31c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…4dfbbacked Yes | 60c | 48.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…09bdbacked No | 44c | 47.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 70c | 46.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed No | 52c | 45.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed No | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…d290backed Yes | 66c | 43.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 41c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…40e4backed No | 44c | 42.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…c097backed No | 74c | 40.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…68b5backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc05b…c081backed No | 51c | 39.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fe…b5d1backed Yes | 32c | 37.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 50c | 33.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…2a7bbacked No | 62c | 32.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…7a98backed Yes | 56c | 30.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed Yes | 46c | 27.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 64c | 26.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 46c | 25.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed No | 58c | 20.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55e…a37abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +200%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…c33fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0116…fdf7backed Yes | 55c | 18.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…5f88backed No | 58c | 17.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Vasylivka by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.