Commodities · resolved market
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aedc159eae1d147930fddb11ae1a9ad4e079cd13e18d6ac0558965d08dcd53c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $335,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $285,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 21c | 30,167$6,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,217.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 2c | 15,059$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.96 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 17c | 12,864$2,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 12,025$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,812$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.21 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked Yes | 6c | 7,600$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 15c | 7,500$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 9c | 7,050$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 10c | 5,669$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.3 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 12c | 5,149$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.31 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 2c | 4,787$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 13c | 4,151$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.04 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 9c | 4,086$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 4,032$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed No | 76c | 3,970$3,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 1c | 3,922$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,857$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.41 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 12c | 3,587$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.28 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03f…c592backed Yes | 3c | 3,508$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 79c | 3,300$2,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 9c | 3,207$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.89 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,783$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes | 6c | 2,398$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 6c | 2,364$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.84 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 1c | 2,080$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ed…baa9backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ed…9c3bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,942$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 7c | 1,924$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.7 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 7c | 1,729$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.05 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 10c | 1,718$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.72 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 16c | 1,708$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked Yes | 16c | 1,510$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,486$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,477$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…bcdfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,451$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55f3…1a88backed Yes | 18c | 1,093$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 2c | 1,028$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 3c | 1,008$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…1da5backed Yes | 2c | 978.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…b614backed No | 75c | 933$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 16c | 902.38$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.1 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…e5fcbacked Yes | 2c | 882.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed Yes | 12c | 830.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 2c | 817.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…ad7ebacked Yes | 2c | 812.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca76…2e0cbacked Yes | 12c | 800$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 8c | 660.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 16c | 650$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 11c | 635.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…e256backed No | 73c | 600$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc39…8ad8backed Yes | 12c | 586.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bf…75b5backed Yes | 5c | 572.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 80c | 567.77$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 12c | 501.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 15c | 500$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 12c | 500$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 4c | 488.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 14c | 484.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 2c | 477.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…944dbacked Yes | 17c | 472$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 15c | 462.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…8c88backed Yes | 12c | 450$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 14c | 427.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…23b2backed Yes | 8c | 418.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 8c | 402.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…ac89backed Yes | 17c | 398.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4f…a849backed Yes | 12c | 366.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 76c | 364$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 6c | 319.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…81d2backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 19cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…3c55backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes | 14c | 294.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…a4c9backed Yes | 15c | 260$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 14c | 251.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x92f0…0451backed Yes | 16c | 247.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 16c | 226.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes | 18c | 220$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17da…7e6cbacked Yes | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 13c | 198.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 18c | 180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…a93fbacked Yes | 13c | 166.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…50c8backed Yes | 18c | 160.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.