Earnings · resolved market
Will Groupon (GRPN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab631b8b179af8aebec47acfc74bd1562c8a5a128c34f51ae10f734c5e97e475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 41c | 2,404$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.29 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 58c | 800$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…cda7backed Yes | 52c | 555.61$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.3 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +11.3wins | +0.42per pick | 51cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…83cabacked Yes | 42c | 521.09$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.78 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 21c | 354.89$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.29 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…bb1dbacked No | 50c | 318.97$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.49 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 307.39$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.51 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 58c | 269$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.79 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 44c | 200.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 168 | 64.3%108 W · 60 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 177.75$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.87 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 60c | 170$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x844f…e2edbacked No | 57c | 160.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 44c | 154$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ed…0ce8backed No | 73c | 153.09$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 56c | 150$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 137$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 105.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 99.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…8728backed No | 67c | 98.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 54c | 95.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 79c | 90.91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked Yes | 58c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 40c | 72.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 45c | 67.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…adc9backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -9.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 41c | 58.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -17.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…e84dbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 55c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2e…2581backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked No | 56c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…2fc1backed No | 58c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…4a9dbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…66c7backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…1b11backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…1d24backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…3c0fbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93d9…ad95backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd83f…03b1backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…a4e6backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcc…160abacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 56c | 44.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c90…2444backed Yes | 58c | 39.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…fee9backed No | 57c | 35.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 26.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…fe45backed No | 53c | 21.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8899…5564backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.