Weather · resolved market
Columbus Air Quality Index below 100 by July 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x360bbea6ddf87240094cf0039698673737467a856dd267c4f93bb8972a9c25b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 29c | 1,063$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.32 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdb…8ffcbacked No | 23c | 841.83$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 3c | 585.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes | 68c | 349.99$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 73c | 200.01$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 25c | 163.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 73c | 127.09$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 122.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5f62backed Yes | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…adc9backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 28c | 47.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 73c | 45.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb87…eb45backed No | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…1e3abacked Yes | 69c | 39.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 72c | 37.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 71c | 25.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 68c | 23.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…b48cbacked Yes | 78c | 20.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9748…91e1backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…cc44backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Columbus Air Quality Index below 100 by July 18, 2026?this page
- Columbus Air Quality Index below 100 by July 19, 2026?Yes won
- Columbus Air Quality Index below 100 by July 20, 2026?Yes won
- Columbus Air Quality Index below 100 by July 21, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.