Earnings · resolved market
Will Penske (PAG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb3c1e0e76010fb23f1c29d2adf701c1e56eadc2d0d45282863296367ba64e71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 59c | 1,433$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.44 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 42c | 384.04$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.3 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 42c | 231.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed No | 36c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…f6a4backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked No | 33c | 81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…2fc1backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 60c | 59.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 67c | 52.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…66c7backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93d9…ad95backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 42c | 30.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…adc9backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -17.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.