Fifa International · resolved market
Will Dynamite be the first song performed by BTS at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe214fe318eb82bf34065d97d55f978f0119af6e5d75c6631f1b121d53f3756d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 65c | 2,000$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.83 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 31c | 1,090$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.49 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 66c | 693.33$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.93 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 44c | 635.46$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.11 | 512 | 28.9%148 W · 364 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 19c | 590$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.57 | 249 | 54.2%135 W · 114 L | +40.3wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 68c | 498.99$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.28 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 63c | 498.22$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.14 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 376.32$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.19 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…2e51backed No | 35c | 367.48$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…680ebacked No | 36c | 365.42$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb163…6062backed No | 30c | 338.32$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 29c | 329.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 147 | 38.1%56 W · 91 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…ab23backed No | 33c | 291.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 10c | 265.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.72 | 489 | 61.3%300 W · 189 L | +71.0wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed Yes | 39c | 264.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.33 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed No | 28c | 240.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 35c | 238.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…179ebacked No | 38c | 220$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 176 | 32.4%57 W · 119 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1330…b4b5backed No | 19c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 33c | 197.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd06…b333backed Yes | 69c | 167.97$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ed…0ce8backed No | 57c | 161$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…f433backed No | 32c | 159.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 67c | 145.53$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked Yes | 68c | 121$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…b9edbacked No | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 117$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 68c | 103.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 13c | 103.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 66c | 100.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 253 | 52.6%133 W · 120 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 226 | 50.9%115 W · 111 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 98.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 40c | 95.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…7fefbacked No | 32c | 92.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb395…3a1fbacked Yes | 43c | 86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 36c | 84.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -11.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19cf…cdd1backed No | 56c | 67.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +199.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 63c | 67.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed No | 53c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 617 | 52%321 W · 296 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…7d42backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1f…6465backed No | 35c | 45.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…c225backed Yes | 65c | 43.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 70c | 42.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6565…c235backed No | 33c | 40.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b6…e9d7backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…80c0backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 53 | 86.8%46 W · 7 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…f711backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…aef0backed Yes | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 32c | 36.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…15e5backed Yes | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…c735backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…c0dfbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…155fbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…adc9backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27da…d24abacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +245.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…902ebacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9748…91e1backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -9.0wins | -0.25per pick | 64cpaid | -35%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…a954backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…ac4dbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…1995backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…b99abacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fe…bad3backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 68c | 16.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 69c | 15.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 383 | 29.8%114 W · 269 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dynamite be the first song performed by BTS at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?this page
- Will Boy With Luv be the first song performed by BTS at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?No won
- Will Dai Dai be the first song performed by BTS at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?No won
- Will FYA be the first song performed by BTS at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?No won
- Will Hooligan be the first song performed by BTS at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?No won
- Will SWIM be the first song performed by BTS at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.