Movies · resolved market
Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32ff2452ffc749b92fe3d2bcc27623eb936ca7de59fc9fddcc744495d8cc4a60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 60c | 1,932$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.56 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 71c | 703$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.89 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 550$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 20c | 474.08$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 26c | 463$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.77 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 18c | 395.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 299.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.98 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 28c | 294.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.88 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 50c | 294.58$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.29 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 74c | 285$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 257.38$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.04 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 255.1$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.69 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa43b…78afbacked No | 9c | 151.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 150.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 149.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…57aabacked Yes | 28c | 134$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 103$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed Yes | 71c | 102.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 30c | 92.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 48c | 85.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 71c | 77.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 58c | 68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 71c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 37.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 20.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 60c | 20.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -50%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 58cpaid | -63%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…adc9backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa8…0c06backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?this page
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 14m?No won
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?No won
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 11m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.