Movies · resolved market
Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 14m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b02a7fdcae0c3b16d0939a0c7a4a1c5629af3f65b62bd6c6845b7d89548aaac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 50c | 3,163$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.19 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 57c | 1,633$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.4 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 39c | 1,203$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.27 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 64c | 1,096$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.26 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed No | 60c | 874.05$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.78 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 800$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 67c | 782.4$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.71 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 54c | 349.99$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed No | 52c | 331.15$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 285$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.35 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 44c | 272.39$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.19 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 34c | 222.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.97 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 217.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.83 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 176.72$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.97 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed No | 27c | 175$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.75 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 64c | 170.28$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.28 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 154.05$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 47c | 128.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed No | 44c | 125.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 71c | 81.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 39c | 78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 60.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed No | 71c | 55.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 40c | 40.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 25c | 40.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 37.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 30c | 36.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 39c | 33.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7c…ba26backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 59c | 27.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f0…c8e5backed Yes | 53c | 25.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…648cbacked Yes | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 58cpaid | -63%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a28…035bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 14m?this page
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?No won
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?Yes won
- Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 11m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.