TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf0f3…985a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
41
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 54 out of 100; worst MLB at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT1850%9 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylian Mbappe score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$29.19
Will Erling Haaland score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+150%+$390
Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.5
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$312
Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$138
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$408Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$272
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.8
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.88
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$338.58
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$170
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$291.5
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
All 18 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+70.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+70.9%+$16.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liquid Win the Stake Pulse Beat 1 tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.