AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73db93fb836ebee841fdc873e2e0a19fcafbbb11403a2a5fc925b9694f408a69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $258,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd311…61b4backed Yes | 2c | 17,596$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.35 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…d0c6backed Yes | 2c | 16,348$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 1c | 13,607$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…15dabacked Yes | 6c | 12,986$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.71 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,415$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.55 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…d087backed Yes | 2c | 8,888$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 8,808$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 8,143$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.23 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 8,130$5,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,396.2 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 2c | 7,195$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.23 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…9612backed Yes | 4c | 6,042$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.26 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 6c | 4,927$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.22 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,797$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.93 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,370$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 4,069$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 6c | 3,694$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.07 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779d…169fbacked Yes | 24c | 3,666$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes | 29c | 3,026$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.21 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 2,668$2,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.36 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed Yes | 23c | 2,399$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.93 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 2,337$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 1c | 2,279$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…1b7fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,266$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.82 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,103$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,080$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,857$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked Yes | 9c | 1,500$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.08 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e6…9139backed Yes | 3c | 1,373$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 60c | 1,247$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.72 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…44a9backed Yes | 46c | 1,200$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 11c | 1,198$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.78 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 61c | 1,181$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.72 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 1,090$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.01 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 78c | 1,017$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 5c | 999.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +63%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdce4…b29fbacked Yes | 57c | 967.38$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…be21backed Yes | 21c | 870.87$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a6…9c94backed Yes | 15c | 799$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 781.64$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.81 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…c962backed Yes | 40c | 749.99$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked No | 44c | 742.56$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.98 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…8e88backed Yes | 59c | 704.97$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9c…32e2backed Yes | 65c | 611.19$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 43c | 593$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.64 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5667…bb43backed Yes | 2c | 583.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd3…b180backed Yes | 4c | 557.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 27c | 529.98$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.49 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 9c | 505.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…a0eebacked Yes | 61c | 490$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 480.79$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.63 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…6cf8backed Yes | 37c | 460.29$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 53c | 440.76$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.45 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…73e0backed Yes | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…acecbacked Yes | 57c | 376.85$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d1…b9ffbacked Yes | 31c | 360.81$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.81 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 344.52$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.46 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…04bdbacked Yes | 6c | 338.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed No | 71c | 334.64$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 10c | 332.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…4d33backed Yes | 6c | 317.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 15c | 297.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…9afcbacked Yes | 56c | 289.32$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5441…7c4ebacked Yes | 54c | 278.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 68c | 266.95$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 59c | 265.91$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 263.65$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…6cc9backed Yes | 19c | 262.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb59…6ca3backed Yes | 47c | 260.13$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 8c | 252.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…fa2fbacked Yes | 20c | 238.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…4b7fbacked Yes | 8c | 234.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…b1c2backed Yes | 44c | 233.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…7b9cbacked Yes | 42c | 232.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…9502backed Yes | 43c | 221.93$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9493…4d3fbacked Yes | 36c | 221.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 52c | 217.88$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.79 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 35c | 216.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.86 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fab…c60abacked Yes | 32c | 210$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 207.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 39c | 200.57$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…c08fbacked Yes | 32c | 191.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b3…33febacked Yes | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 190.46$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a02…8b73backed Yes | 56c | 178.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…b53dbacked Yes | 48c | 163.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe583…34babacked Yes | 33c | 163.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…a9ccbacked No | 80c | 162.4$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe4…3bb8backed Yes | 37c | 160.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…79b0backed Yes | 9c | 152.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +63%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 43c | 151.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3469…2e39backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…abe7backed Yes | 7c | 138.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f3…7c6bbacked Yes | 41c | 134.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 79c | 131.13$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Yes won
- Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.