AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf60b64942f0cfbc3916aba1678929924c209c312a1daba7fbfb7f712d916a675
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $314,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $264,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe917…9612backed Yes | 9c | 53,016$4,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,690.46 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 20c | 26,695$5,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,368.37 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 11c | 20,020$2,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,202.01 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 19,501$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.27 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 49c | 14,009$6,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,796.11 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…61b4backed Yes | 7c | 5,759$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.04 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…0467backed Yes | 31c | 5,574$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 4,032$3,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.77 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 3,968$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,384.46 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 22c | 3,471$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.88 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 2,942$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.42 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 21c | 2,878$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 50c | 2,849$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.51 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd3…b180backed Yes | 8c | 2,717$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 60c | 2,348$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.16 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 2,139$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.34 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e5…f2c1backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…4d33backed Yes | 40c | 1,892$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 1,687$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.06 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,648$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked No | 66c | 1,622$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 1,610$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.84 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aba…9e7cbacked Yes | 56c | 1,586$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd59…0231backed No | 10c | 1,544$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 1,532$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.91 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 1,391$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.45 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 1,295$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 38c | 1,238$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 1,124$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.86 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 27c | 1,057$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.17 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 30c | 1,042$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.49 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes | 40c | 994.57$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…5661backed Yes | 11c | 917.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 916.26$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.51 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed Yes | 2c | 908.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 862.19$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.67 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 12c | 859.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 35c | 843.75$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.02 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 44c | 800$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 790.83$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.86 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 692.41$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.13 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 691.22$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.1 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 20c | 684.7$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.62 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…1af6backed Yes | 34c | 679.13$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 674.09$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.74 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 672.53$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.16 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 46c | 628.71$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.13 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 16c | 626.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 600$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.29 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 562.48$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.78 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 554.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 540.81$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.97 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed Yes | 22c | 536.6$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 23c | 508.29$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…17adbacked Yes | 20c | 502$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa5…35c6backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a71…78c9backed Yes | 14c | 499.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x818c…a500backed No | 48c | 479.86$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…8719backed Yes | 24c | 463.4$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 5c | 449.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 35c | 441.41$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 35c | 424$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.84 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 17c | 413.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 8c | 402.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170d…064cbacked Yes | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…d4babacked Yes | 77c | 400$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…ff78backed Yes | 15c | 399.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed Yes | 13c | 399.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +186.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…ca94backed Yes | 27c | 396.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…3f66backed Yes | 26c | 360.62$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60db…319dbacked Yes | 18c | 334.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ee…7030backed No | 20c | 306.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.26 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +373.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 301.61$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 72c | 297.34$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…64a1backed Yes | 8c | 272.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 258.51$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.44 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c12…62ccbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 13c | 252$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…04c0backed Yes | 71c | 250$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5f…4b0bbacked Yes | 27c | 242.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 42c | 235.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…acb6backed Yes | 5c | 219.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…1f1fbacked Yes | 16c | 218.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 50c | 210.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 201.75$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.09 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa46…4a23backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…b8edbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0060…1ed2backed Yes | 80c | 190$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 68c | 184.51$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92f…25b8backed Yes | 79c | 180$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Yes | 31c | 178.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…76a7backed No | 29c | 174.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 59c | 174.01$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d6…e410backed Yes | 29c | 170.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 43c | 162.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 159.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 155.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Yes won
- Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.