TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$314,260
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$264,120

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,260 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe917…9612backed Yes9c53,016$4,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,690.462722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes20c26,695$5,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,368.375016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes11c20,020$2,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,202.018815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c19,501$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2726312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes49c14,009$6,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,796.1111723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd311…61b4backed Yes7c5,759$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.04230%0 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x138b…0467backed Yes31c5,574$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No77c4,032$3,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.777943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No40c3,968$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,384.466145.9%28 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked Yes22c3,471$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.883231.3%10 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c2,942$2,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.425440.7%22 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76db…6987backed Yes21c2,878$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.091338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes50c2,849$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.5119432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dd3…b180backed Yes8c2,717$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No60c2,348$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.163810.5%4 W · 34 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes46c2,139$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.346726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e5…f2c1backed Yes20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e4…4d33backed Yes40c1,892$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.16633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+79.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No70c1,687$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.067448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c1,648$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.332003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked No66c1,622$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes16c1,610$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.8410126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aba…9e7cbacked Yes56c1,586$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd59…0231backed No10c1,544$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.791145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+63.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes11c1,532$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9117824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c1,391$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.4547938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No78c1,295$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.521838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed Yes38c1,238$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.38540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-11.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No75c1,124$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.862343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed Yes27c1,057$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.173925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No30c1,042$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.4919818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes71c1,000$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71045738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes40c994.57$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.511127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7655…5661backed Yes11c917.49$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7750%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No73c916.26$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.512544%11 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x652b…f5c2backed Yes2c908.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.531618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-74.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No63c862.19$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.673253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes12c859.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.133315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes35c843.75$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.029839.8%39 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes44c800$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No68c790.83$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.862133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No67c692.41$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.132540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No65c691.22$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.12744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes20c684.7$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.628241.5%34 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c1d…1af6backed Yes34c679.13$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No68c674.09$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.742236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No72c672.53$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.162737%10 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No46c628.71$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.134736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes16c626.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.731546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+77.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No79c600$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.295848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No80c562.48$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.789543.2%41 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes18c554.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7529430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No67c540.81$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.972842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8792…4174backed Yes22c536.6$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-51.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes23c508.29$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397e…17adbacked Yes20c502$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfa5…35c6backed Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a71…78c9backed Yes14c499.96$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-63.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x818c…a500backed No48c479.86$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.87250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227d…8719backed Yes24c463.4$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3673…ce22backed Yes5c449.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.04728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No35c441.41$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.471346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes35c424$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.848123.5%19 W · 62 L-9.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-55.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes17c413.41$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.491388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Yes8c402.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.931250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x170d…064cbacked Yes40c400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03eb…d4babacked Yes77c400$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e59…ff78backed Yes15c399.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-55.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed Yes13c399.97$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+186.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa37d…ca94backed Yes27c396.3$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1061540%6 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd0…67b0backed Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbb…3f66backed Yes26c360.62$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-54.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60db…319dbacked Yes18c334.41$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3ee…7030backed No20c306.57$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.265100%5 W · 0 L+3.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+373.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No79c301.61$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.394946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No72c297.34$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.266040%24 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dbd…64a1backed Yes8c272.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.98616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No53c258.51$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.445843.1%25 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c12…62ccbacked Yes39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes13c252$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7616418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x2cc0…04c0backed Yes71c250$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a5f…4b0bbacked Yes27c242.77$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes42c235.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.59525.3%24 W · 71 L-13.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-16.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb957…acb6backed Yes5c219.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc3…1f1fbacked Yes16c218.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3590%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No50c210.8$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.53650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No45c201.75$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.092552%13 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa46…4a23backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.882462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60d8…b8edbacked Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0060…1ed2backed Yes80c190$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x270b…e632backed No68c184.51$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.34933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe92f…25b8backed Yes79c180$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked Yes31c178.92$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d8…76a7backed No29c174.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.21540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No59c174.01$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.553946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8d6…e410backed Yes29c170.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes43c162.93$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.012240.9%9 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes18c159.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0411124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No59c155.38$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.282650%13 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.