TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$232,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$219,197

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,337 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 395 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaee8…1154backed Yes32c13,176$4,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,899.5211723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No1c10,325$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.364818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf1c…2ebbbacked Yes68c10,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked No32c9,102$2,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,912.485016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No48c8,432$4,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,027.497032.9%23 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes53c7,741$4,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,655.9419432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76db…6987backed Yes51c6,530$3,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,177.021338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No17c5,832$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.385440.7%22 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x779d…169fbacked Yes50c4,309$2,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.461643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No39c3,768$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,462.27943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No63c3,734$2,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,358.476145.9%28 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed Yes40c3,193$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-11.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No21c3,055$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.533810.5%4 W · 34 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked Yes39c2,871$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.533231.3%10 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbba…d60fbacked Yes72c2,705$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45cc…1b7fbacked Yes26c2,584$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.31172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick47cpaid+50.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No28c2,365$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.156439.1%25 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No38c2,313$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.57448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x247c…4034backed Yes69c2,199$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes47c2,105$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.396726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes57c2,060$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.2610126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cb6…1d53backed Yes69c1,850$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e84…8e88backed Yes60c1,600$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac8…6cecbacked Yes41c1,514$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d23…70febacked Yes74c1,500$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…15c8backed No7c1,400$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No31c1,400$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4341020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-71.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes56c1,326$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.594360.5%26 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No46c1,309$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.578942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0395…7a29backed Yes69c1,304$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes22c1,300$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.4445738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5004…9999backed No12c1,254$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.51850%4 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+159.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes48c1,249$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.081136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes39c1,205$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.1914421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes24c1,192$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.6119818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No43c1,187$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.234126.8%11 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes40c1,175$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.788241.5%34 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbde3…6019backed Yes70c1,057$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ca…729abacked Yes76c1,048$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.97450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1244…15dabacked No5c1,042$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No32c1,012$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.812045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd0…67b0backed Yes40c1,007$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.982157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7bd…ebcebacked Yes75c1,000$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70e5…649cbacked Yes12c999.99$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.99333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+166.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed Yes38c969.98$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.063925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes75c909.46$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.77837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-47.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aba…9e7cbacked Yes27c854.94$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.53450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ed…c43dbacked Yes69c827.57$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.555100%5 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No9c826.73$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.831118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+130.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c8…0208backed Yes58c816.18$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf53e…2139backed Yes60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ec…263ebacked Yes50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ac…12ffbacked Yes60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa65…9027backed Yes60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f77…eebabacked Yes60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c5…9b22backed Yes60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c23…359bbacked Yes60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…7964backed Yes60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc050…e045backed Yes57c797.42$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+73.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No45c794.72$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.744736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe13b…560cbacked Yes60c793.49$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bb3…62bebacked Yes60c791.23$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb384…8bb1backed Yes60c782.94$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b4a…dac7backed Yes60c778.92$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a8…4126backed Yes69c724.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.644100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0074…0767backed No45c719.5$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+165.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…7badbacked Yes79c695.96$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No43c632.23$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.5712533.6%42 W · 83 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No43c628.14$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.912343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No10c620.22$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0226312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x529c…97d6backed Yes60c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacd3…ffddbacked Yes69c600$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes4c599.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.992003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No68c599.99$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.585848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes56c584.3$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.243735.1%13 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…a888backed Yes77c581.74$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.743076.7%23 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65d4…b7e3backed Yes71c566.56$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.565100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No30c560.33$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.598547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd59…0231backed No44c547.38$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.761145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+63.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No19c532.87$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.552744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes8c524.8$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.851546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+77.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c521.59$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.298741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No32c517.24$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2416418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No23c502.3$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.767538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No50c500.7$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.13243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6507…7d79backed Yes50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb187…44a9backed Yes38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+118.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed Yes27c499.97$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.981442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+186.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe917…9612backed Yes13c495.21$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.982722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec4d…be21backed No28c489.84$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x227d…8719backed Yes67c489.81$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No39c481.25$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.721838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No30c477.36$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.121450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4719…134bbacked Yes68c449.99$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes10c428$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.08580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick41cpaid+217.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x896a…7b9cbacked Yes29c422.68$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.971136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e15…a0eebacked Yes60c418.64$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.68366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca15…b550backed Yes60c414.18$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x369a…0b41backed Yes50c400$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.83850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7655…5661backed No11c392.6$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4450%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.