AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b32c0c5f081501ef936b71876df0028613a1a159c5e1bae1279e087086cc7d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $232,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 395 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 32c | 13,176$4,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,899.52 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 1c | 10,325$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.36 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1c…2ebbbacked Yes | 68c | 10,000$6,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked No | 32c | 9,102$2,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,912.48 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 8,432$4,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,027.49 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 53c | 7,741$4,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,655.94 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 51c | 6,530$3,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,177.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 5,832$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.38 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779d…169fbacked Yes | 50c | 4,309$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160.46 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 39c | 3,768$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.2 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 3,734$2,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,358.47 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 40c | 3,193$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,929.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 21c | 3,055$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.53 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 39c | 2,871$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.53 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbba…d60fbacked Yes | 72c | 2,705$1,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…1b7fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,584$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.3 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 2,365$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.15 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 2,313$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.5 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247c…4034backed Yes | 69c | 2,199$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 2,105$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.39 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 57c | 2,060$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.26 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…1d53backed Yes | 69c | 1,850$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…8e88backed Yes | 60c | 1,600$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…6cecbacked Yes | 41c | 1,514$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d23…70febacked Yes | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…15c8backed No | 7c | 1,400$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed No | 31c | 1,400$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,326$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.59 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 1,309$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.57 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…7a29backed Yes | 69c | 1,304$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 1,300$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.44 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…9999backed No | 12c | 1,254$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 48c | 1,249$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 1,205$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.19 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,192$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.61 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 43c | 1,187$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.23 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,175$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.78 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…6019backed Yes | 70c | 1,057$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ca…729abacked Yes | 76c | 1,048$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…15dabacked No | 5c | 1,042$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 32c | 1,012$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.81 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed Yes | 40c | 1,007$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.98 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…ebcebacked Yes | 75c | 1,000$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e5…649cbacked Yes | 12c | 999.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 38c | 969.98$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.06 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 75c | 909.46$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aba…9e7cbacked Yes | 27c | 854.94$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ed…c43dbacked Yes | 69c | 827.57$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.55 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 9c | 826.73$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…0208backed Yes | 58c | 816.18$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53e…2139backed Yes | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ec…263ebacked Yes | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ac…12ffbacked Yes | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa65…9027backed Yes | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f77…eebabacked Yes | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c5…9b22backed Yes | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c23…359bbacked Yes | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…7964backed Yes | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc050…e045backed Yes | 57c | 797.42$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 45c | 794.72$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.74 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…560cbacked Yes | 60c | 793.49$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb3…62bebacked Yes | 60c | 791.23$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb384…8bb1backed Yes | 60c | 782.94$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…dac7backed Yes | 60c | 778.92$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…4126backed Yes | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…0767backed No | 45c | 719.5$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…7badbacked Yes | 79c | 695.96$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 43c | 632.23$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.57 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 43c | 628.14$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.91 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 10c | 620.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…97d6backed Yes | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd3…ffddbacked Yes | 69c | 600$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 599.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.99 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 599.99$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.58 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 56c | 584.3$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.24 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…a888backed Yes | 77c | 581.74$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.74 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed Yes | 71c | 566.56$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.56 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 560.33$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.59 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd59…0231backed No | 44c | 547.38$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 19c | 532.87$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 8c | 524.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 521.59$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.29 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 32c | 517.24$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.24 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 23c | 502.3$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 50c | 500.7$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.1 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6507…7d79backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…44a9backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed Yes | 27c | 499.97$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +186.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…9612backed Yes | 13c | 495.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.98 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…be21backed No | 28c | 489.84$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…8719backed Yes | 67c | 489.81$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 481.25$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 30c | 477.36$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4719…134bbacked Yes | 68c | 449.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 10c | 428$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +217.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…7b9cbacked Yes | 29c | 422.68$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…a0eebacked Yes | 60c | 418.64$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca15…b550backed Yes | 60c | 414.18$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369a…0b41backed Yes | 50c | 400$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…5661backed No | 11c | 392.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.